Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- February 27, 2013 - ANZAC's dive

by Collinson FX on 28 Feb 2013
Thurlow Fisher Lawyer’s spectacular capsize - 18ft Skiff JJ Giltinan Championships2013 - Race 7 Beth Morley - Sport Sailing Photography http://www.sportsailingphotography.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 27, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Bernanke set about righting the ship after the fallout on yesterdays markets from the Italian elections. Bernanke defended his record and endorsed his QE monetary easing policies saying 'benefits outweighed costs'. He outlined his record of an average inflation rate of 2%, as one of the best, but it is hard to have run-away inflation when there is anaemic growth!

Economic reports came in on the right side of the ledger with the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index rising 0.9% and New Home Sales jumping 15.6%! Consumer Confidence also mover higher to 69.6 from 58.4, reversing the recent poor stream of economic news. The EUR continued to faulter with the deadlock arising from the Italian elections. The single currency fell to 1.3050 and the GBP 1.5140 after the stalemate election rejected austerity and signalled instability and the road to instability.

The risk aversion spread across commodity currencies with the AUD crashing to 1.0220 and the KIWI down over a cent to 0.8250. The surge in the USD was a safe haven play supported by positive domestic news. Plenty more news to drive markets for the rest of the week with equities attempting to recoup early losses.


Collinson FX market Commentary: February 26, 2013
The DOW looked set to challenge the all time high early but was pegged back by political news from Europe and the fallout from sequestration domestically. Italy's election look set to surprise with the phoenix of Berlusconi rising once again. This is a threat to the austerity policies employed by the current civilian leadership.

The ramifications could be severe with Italian and Spanish bonds being the canary in the mine. Moody's downgraded the UK's cherished 'AAA' status which sent jitters across Europe with the overwhelming debt levels taking its toll. The recession rolls on and looks set to continue for some time as little has been done to address the deficit and debt crises. The EUR reacted accordingly falling back to 1.3090 and the GBP 1.5140.

In the US, sequestration threatens economic growth although this is just another manufactured crises with conception in the Whitehouse. Obama has made an art of crises management, politicizing the problem only to push for favourable outcomes at last minute crises meetings. He is again pushing for higher taxes to expand the socialisation of big Government society.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index contracted and the Dallas Fed revealed Manufacturing suffered a further blow. Economic news has been weak contradicting the surge in Equities fueled by the flood of cash courtesy of QE infinity. Political and Economic turmoil looks set to continue in the worlds largest trading zones.

Europe is mired in uncertainty and the US swamped in drama from Obama. Risk aversion hit the AUD falling back to 1.0250 and the KIWI remaining below 0.8400 once again. Technicals continue to issue alerts as equities and currencies fail to break through ever strengthening ceilings.


Collinson FX market Commentary: February 25, 2013

US Equity markets wiped out the weeks losses with a Friday surge sparked by some good economic news from Europe and some pro-QE statements from St Louis Fed Chairman.

In Europe German IFO Business Climate rose to a 3 year high although exports and imports contracted. A German recovery could spark a recovery in Europe but these assumptions ignore the harsh economic realities. In the US, James Bullard suggested QE was here for a 'long time' which reassured many frightened by earlier statements questioning the impact of QE Infinity.

The EUR remained weak at 1.3185 and the GBP 1.5175. The recovery of risk-appetite softened the Dollar against the commodity currencies with the AUD retesting 1.0300 and the KIWI back to 0.8348. A flood of economic data from Europe and the US will drive markets in the coming week.

A good look at GDP growth an Employment with a closer look at US Housing. Can the Bulls ignore economic reality?


For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 25 - KIWI surges past 70c
The NZD has surged above 0.7000, supported by a sliding reserve, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7500. The Dollar remained depressed, with the EUR holding 1.1200, while the GBP traded 1.2950. Local markets will digest the NZ Budget, which will likely be an election economic plan, affirming the stronger economy allows delivery. The NZD has surged above 0.7000, supported by a sliding reserve, while the AUD attempts to regain 0.7500.
Posted on 25 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 20-21 - All currencies rise
AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. The EUR pushed through 1.1200, while the GBP broke above 1.3000, despite weak economic confidence in the Eurozone. The weak reserve enabled commodity currencies, with the AUD hitting 0.7450, while the NZD traded above 0.6900 again. Trumps tour will provide Geo-Political points of issue but may calm the domestic politic.
Posted on 22 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 19 - Pressure off Trump
The AUD held above 0.7400, supported by lower unemployment rate (down to 5.7%), while the NZD slipped back below 0.6900. Markets recovered some of yesterdays lost ground, after an Independent Counsel was appointed to investigate the Russian interference, thereby relieving pressure on Trump. The obstruction charge, that prompted talk of Trumps impeachment, was also questioned. A tape circulated that Comey denied the Presidents intervention.
Posted on 19 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 17 - NZD and AUD all rise
The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary p The NZ Dairy auction continued to improve, supporting a recovery in the currency, pushing the NZD towards 0.6900. US Housing Starts contracted 2.6%, while Building Permits slipped 2.5%, giving little reason for a Dollar rebound. The AUD also continues to rally, consolidating above 0.7400, after the RBA minutes confirmed little change in monetary policy.
Posted on 17 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 15 - Oil surges after Price Fix
The AUD broke back above 0.7400, in to some clear air, while the NZD held above 0.7850. Oil surged back towards $50/barrel, after Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a deal on limiting supply, looking to push the price up to a higher trading band. US equity markets jumped and the Dollar slipped lower.
Posted on 16 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 13-14 - Budget imbalance
The KIWI (0.6850) has been battered, after the RBNZ indicated accommodative monetary policy would continue The AUD has been under extreme pressure, but quietly moves back towards 0.7400, post Budget. The Australian Budget signalled a different approach to fiscal balance. The Government has been unable to cut some of the expenditure required, being curtailed in the Senate, while political will has dissipated.
Posted on 15 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 12 - Banks sit on their hands
The NZD dropped a big figure, to 0.6828, but recovered overnight to settle around 0.6850 The Bank of England and RBNZ both left rates unchanged, as expected, but associated commentaries were negative. The Bank of England continued current accommodative Monetary Policy and indicated a penchant for rises 'assuming a smooth transition Post-Brexit'! The GBP drifted back to 1.2890, after a recent bull run
Posted on 11 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 9 - Aussies tax banks
The AUD has fallen back to 0.7340, while the NZD slipped below 0.6900, as the reserve recovers. The Australian budget was delivered and changed the focus from a reduction in spending to an expansion of revenue. This is a different approach to the goal of balancing the budget. This is a move away from the ideological 'smaller Government' to expanding tax revenues and avoiding electoral pain.
Posted on 10 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 7 - Macron win expected
The associated currencies were beneficiaries, with the AUD rallying above 0.7400, while the NZD consolidated above 0.690 The EUR trades around 1.1000, so nothing less than a victory for Macron will do, a loss being catastrophic. The only way LePen can make a dent is a strong turnout from the minority, enthusiastic supporters, while inertia is a threat. There is little upside, so most will be square, with a few reckless punters short!
Posted on 7 May
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 5 - Confidence up on Macron win
The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity prices have been under pressure, depressing the associated currencies, which have found no solace in interest rate differentials. The AUD has been the biggest victim, falling below 0.7400, while the NZD dropped below 0.6850. Commodity demand has slipped, hitting energy prices and companies, with soft Chinese demand.
Posted on 4 May