Collinson FX Market Commentary- Feb 26 - Big jump for AUD

by Collinson FX on 27 Feb 2015 Collinson FX market Commentary: February 26, 2015

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Feb 26 - Equities hovered around record highs while the Fed signalled a retreat from interest rate rises. The 'dovish' Yellen is showing her true character, unable to tighten monetary policy, excused by QE actions globally.

The USD stalled from the recent rally, with the EUR trading 1.1350, while the GBP rallied to 1.5500. This was supported by an improving economy which was free from the chains of the single currency. US New Home Sales were static confirming this leading indicator has never really endorsed a strong economic recovery. The HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI jumped above the all important 50 level, confirming expansion, boosting commodities and the associated currencies. The AUD jumped towards 0.7900, while the KIWI traded 0.7530, looking at the release of Trade data today.

Exports and Imports are expected to be lower reflecting the economic environment, although the balance is expected to be static. Central Banks continue to drive market direction while economic data remains a symptom. The NZD currently trades 0.6630 and 0.4850 against the EUR and GBP, booking some gains. The NZDJPY cross also benefited from overnight trading to sit 89.50 this morning.

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 25, 2015

Feb 25 - Markets switched focus overnight as the spotlight turned to interest rates away from the fears of a Greek default. EU Finance Ministers accepted conditions from Greece to extend the bailout packages. This confirms obligations that already existed but allowed some semantic concessions to to appease voters. Yellen has reiterated early indications citing 'patience' as the word, with regards the timetable, for raising interest rates.

She observed the labor market was recovering and inflation was under control allowing room for dallying. The US Market Composite PMI advanced, endorsing the recovery pitch, although Consumer Confidence slipped further. Yellen will refrain from action as trading partners have the foot to the floor on money printing. The ECB and Bank of Japan, amongst others, are in the middle of QE and this will prevent the US tightening.

The Dollar remained steady, despite Yellens comments, with the EUR trading 1.1340 and the GBP 1.5450. Commodities drifted and associated currencies also faltered. The AUD held 0.7800, while the NZD traded above 0.7450, reflecting some consolidation. Central Bank policy is again dominating markets.

Collinson FX market Commentary: February 24, 2015

Feb 24 - The week opened with the Greek debt scenario hanging over markets. The Greeks must come up with a plan to re-negotiate their debt bailout by today and thus far, have not looked like doing this, failing to gain support.

The Greeks have turned up with no plan other than 'no austerity' and 'no debt' The Germans will buckle but with a good out. The EUR dropped back to 1.1350, while the GBP pushed north, to 1.5450. The GBP/EUR cross has reached new highs due to economic gains unabated by the confounded single currency. The gains for the Dollar was reflected in the commodity based currencies.

The AUDUSD failed to hold 0.7800, while the KIWI is trying to consolidate around 0.7500. US economic data has been weak, with Existing Home Sales contracting 4.9%, while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged.

Economic data and Geo-Political instability have usurped gains which may threaten market gains. The NZD currently trades 0.6620 and 0.4855 against the EUR and GBP with the NZDAUD again pushing through 0.9600 on the topside.


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