Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- August 1, 2013 - AUD slides further

by Collinson FX on 1 Aug 2013
2013 420 Nationals Takapuna © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 1, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Fed left the QE Infinity unchanged and the positive news on the economic front reinvigorated the 'tapering' prospects. Low inflation and GDP growth improving, has now insured that Bernanke will commence tapering. The tapering is only a cut to increasing the balance sheet well beyond any expectations and thus will have little impact.

It is the mind-set that is being reinforced. The Employment data continues to improve and the Dollar looks to a recovery. The EUR held 1.3295 and the GBP 1.5200. US GDP improved to 1.7% and employment improvement lend to the end of QE infinity thus undermining equities and boosting the Dollar.

The AUD slipped below the important floor of 0.9000 and the KIWI broke big, big 0.8000. This is new territory and does not lend to much positivity. The good news is that we may be in for the first female head of the Fed! Things can only improve!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 31, 2013

Markets were treading water in anticipation of the FOMC meeting scheduled for a decision tomorrow. This should be a big day, with the all-important Fed meeting and crucial GDP data and the ADP Jobs Report. These three events, individually have the ability to move the market, so any uniformity of results could result in a big move.

The Fed is expected to begin to taper QE infinity by September so confirmation of this may have already been built in. Flagging GDP and falling Job prospects could signal a reversal of this tapering prospect but weakness and commitment to easing would bring negative impact to equities, commodities and currencies (except for the USD)! The USD was creeping north in the lead up to the eagerly awaited announcement with the EUR 1.3250 and the GBP 1.5240.

The AUD took a bath yesterday, falling from 0.9200 to 0.9160 after Building Permits collapsed by 6.2% for the month and 13% annually! The economic news and the plunge in mining investment sparked dovish comments from the RBA Governor Stevens. The flagging economy may attract a rate cut at the next Central Bank meeting which undermined the Ozzie!

The KIWI lost some shine, after being tarred by the same brush, dropping below 0.8000 but blowing through 0.8800 in the cross v it's troubled trans-Tasman cousin.

All eyes on the Fed and GDP with ECB and BofE still to come this week! Non-Farm Payroll will ice the cake Friday!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 30, 2013

Markets opened the new week with a hang-over from recent equity gains. US Markets were disappointed when the Pending Homes Sales contracted by 0.4% sending mixed signals in an industry considered a leading indicator. This week is all about Central Banks with the FOMC meeting tomorrow and ECB and Bank of England later in the week.

The other major driver for markets will be the Employment reports culminating with Non-Farm Payrolls. Tapering is expected to start in September and there has been plenty of warning so whether this impacts, we will have to see.

The Dollar was steady with the EUR 1.3250 and the GBP 1.5350. Commodities were mixed and expectations of Dollar gains have pushed the AUD back below 0.9200 and the KIWI barely holding 0.8000.rrencies and commodities will be driven by Central Bank action, commentary and market perceptions. It will be a huge week and expectations are for volatility


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 29, 2013

Markets remained flat with debate raging over whether the Fed will commence tapering of QE Infinity. Consumer Confidence surged to 85.1 from 83.9, reflecting a growing confidence in the banal economic recovery which could signal the 'beginning of the end' of Monetary Expansionism.

The week ahead holds prospects of huge moves in Currencies and Equities with Central Banks from the US and Europe taking center stage. The direction of Monetary policy is the major driver of market direction. If the Fed indicates a propensity to instigate a taming of QE then we may see the start of a long term rise in the US Dollar. It would probably impact equities negatively with the reduction in the avalanche of money.

The EUR has reached 1.3275 and the GBP 1.5390 with the diluted Dollar but this may change. Growth numbers and Jobs Reports in the US will also impact market direction.

The KIWI continues to surge, looking to test the 0.8100 level, but will come under considerable pressure if the USD worm turns. The AUD has also benefited a resurgence after recent tests of the important 0.9000 levels. The AUD settled to close around 0.9250 and will look to the new week for short term directional drivers.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 22 - RBNZ's words undermine NZD
The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000 The AUD slipped below 0.7500, while the NZD surrendered the huge number of 0.7000, undermined by the RBNZ statement telegraphing further interest rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 21 - It's official, No slowdown
The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000 Oil fell to $45/barrel, leading a raft of commodities lower, putting a ceiling on associated currencies. The AUD remains below 0.7500, while the NZD battles to hold the very big number of 0.7000. Central Bank intentions in Australia and NZ are clear, with NZ LVR's, clearing the decks in preparation for rate cuts.
Posted on 22 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 20 - Markets make full recovery
The AUD trades below 0.7500, while the NZD is headed towards 0.7000 RBA minutes provided a great summary of global economic conditions and how they impact the Australian situation. The RBA considered the impact of the Brexit and recognised that markets were back to pre-brexit levels, except the GBP
Posted on 20 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - 19 July - Brexit a boon for Brits?
NZ CPI came in at 0.4%, for Q2, missing expectations. This pushed the currency below 0.7100 The tumultuous weekend of terrorism in France and a failed coup in Turkey failed to unsettle markets. Equities and currencies commenced the week quietly with the USD settling and share markets perched just below highs. QE has provided massive amounts of cheap money to supply equity markets
Posted on 19 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 16/17 - French attack hits USD
The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve The NZD was undermined by the RBNZ commentary, which enhanced the effect of a rising reserve, with the KIWI drifting back towards 0.7100. Geo-Political events are overwhelming economic events, while Central Bank intervention has driven market moves, filling the space of vacuous global fiscal policies.
Posted on 18 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 15 - RBNZ's surprise adjustment
The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles The RBNZ surprised many, with an adjustment between cycles, allowing commentary to drive the currency back below 0.7200. The RBNZ never seem to quite get it right in the Monetary Policy realm and this interruption is a correction of the last, ham-fisted, statement
Posted on 14 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 13 - Pound surges on confidence
The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly The GBP surged, with new confidence, pushing to 1.3250. The Japanese PM, Abe, ordered further stimulus from the Bank of Japan and the Yen jumped to 104.75. The Australian Liberals met in Canberra and are awaiting a new cabinet selected by PM, Turnbull. The uncertainty is dissipating and markets are reacting accordingly
Posted on 13 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 12 - Commodities and Oil drop
Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. Commodities drifted lower, with Oil falling below $45/barrel, pushing the associated currencies back. The AUD traded 0.7525, while the NZD attempts to hold 0.7200. Markets are calm but expect further Central Bank influence over a relatively quiet economic data release week.
Posted on 13 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 9 - RBNZ's dance macabre
The NZD continued to surge, testing 0.7300, following the 'dance macabre' of the RBNZ Chinese data is also due for release but no surprises are expected, as usual! The NZD continued to surge, testing 0.7300, following the 'dance macabre' of the RBNZ. The AUD traded up to 0.7575, while the USD was steady, with the EUR 1.1050 and the GBP 1.2950. The Bank of Japan's inaction, with the JPY trading 100.50, will no doubt be rectified in the short term!
Posted on 12 Jul
Collinson FX Market Commentary - July 8 - RBNZ inaction lifts KIWI
RBNZ promised more restrictions on housing while warning any further rate cuts 'could pose financial stability risk'! The RBNZ promised further restrictions on housing while warning any further rate cuts 'could pose financial stability risk'! The green light saw the KIWI rally against most currencies. The AUD retreated, falling to 0.7460, after S&P lowers the outlook from stable to negative.
Posted on 8 Jul