Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- August 1, 2013 - AUD slides further

by Collinson FX on 1 Aug 2013
2013 420 Nationals Takapuna Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: August 1, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

The Fed left the QE Infinity unchanged and the positive news on the economic front reinvigorated the 'tapering' prospects. Low inflation and GDP growth improving, has now insured that Bernanke will commence tapering. The tapering is only a cut to increasing the balance sheet well beyond any expectations and thus will have little impact.

It is the mind-set that is being reinforced. The Employment data continues to improve and the Dollar looks to a recovery. The EUR held 1.3295 and the GBP 1.5200. US GDP improved to 1.7% and employment improvement lend to the end of QE infinity thus undermining equities and boosting the Dollar.

The AUD slipped below the important floor of 0.9000 and the KIWI broke big, big 0.8000. This is new territory and does not lend to much positivity. The good news is that we may be in for the first female head of the Fed! Things can only improve!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 31, 2013

Markets were treading water in anticipation of the FOMC meeting scheduled for a decision tomorrow. This should be a big day, with the all-important Fed meeting and crucial GDP data and the ADP Jobs Report. These three events, individually have the ability to move the market, so any uniformity of results could result in a big move.

The Fed is expected to begin to taper QE infinity by September so confirmation of this may have already been built in. Flagging GDP and falling Job prospects could signal a reversal of this tapering prospect but weakness and commitment to easing would bring negative impact to equities, commodities and currencies (except for the USD)! The USD was creeping north in the lead up to the eagerly awaited announcement with the EUR 1.3250 and the GBP 1.5240.

The AUD took a bath yesterday, falling from 0.9200 to 0.9160 after Building Permits collapsed by 6.2% for the month and 13% annually! The economic news and the plunge in mining investment sparked dovish comments from the RBA Governor Stevens. The flagging economy may attract a rate cut at the next Central Bank meeting which undermined the Ozzie!

The KIWI lost some shine, after being tarred by the same brush, dropping below 0.8000 but blowing through 0.8800 in the cross v it's troubled trans-Tasman cousin.

All eyes on the Fed and GDP with ECB and BofE still to come this week! Non-Farm Payroll will ice the cake Friday!


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 30, 2013

Markets opened the new week with a hang-over from recent equity gains. US Markets were disappointed when the Pending Homes Sales contracted by 0.4% sending mixed signals in an industry considered a leading indicator. This week is all about Central Banks with the FOMC meeting tomorrow and ECB and Bank of England later in the week.

The other major driver for markets will be the Employment reports culminating with Non-Farm Payrolls. Tapering is expected to start in September and there has been plenty of warning so whether this impacts, we will have to see.

The Dollar was steady with the EUR 1.3250 and the GBP 1.5350. Commodities were mixed and expectations of Dollar gains have pushed the AUD back below 0.9200 and the KIWI barely holding 0.8000.rrencies and commodities will be driven by Central Bank action, commentary and market perceptions. It will be a huge week and expectations are for volatility


Collinson FX market Commentary: July 29, 2013

Markets remained flat with debate raging over whether the Fed will commence tapering of QE Infinity. Consumer Confidence surged to 85.1 from 83.9, reflecting a growing confidence in the banal economic recovery which could signal the 'beginning of the end' of Monetary Expansionism.

The week ahead holds prospects of huge moves in Currencies and Equities with Central Banks from the US and Europe taking center stage. The direction of Monetary policy is the major driver of market direction. If the Fed indicates a propensity to instigate a taming of QE then we may see the start of a long term rise in the US Dollar. It would probably impact equities negatively with the reduction in the avalanche of money.

The EUR has reached 1.3275 and the GBP 1.5390 with the diluted Dollar but this may change. Growth numbers and Jobs Reports in the US will also impact market direction.

The KIWI continues to surge, looking to test the 0.8100 level, but will come under considerable pressure if the USD worm turns. The AUD has also benefited a resurgence after recent tests of the important 0.9000 levels. The AUD settled to close around 0.9250 and will look to the new week for short term directional drivers.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 23 - KIWI overvalued
The markets closed a quiet week meekly after disappointing PMI data from the EU. The fallout from the RBNZ meeting continues with the KIWI heading towards 0.7300! The currency is overvalued as headline economic data camouflages the underlying problems. The economy is underpinned by immigration and heavily dependent on traditional primary exports.
Posted on 23 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 20 - Fresh start in Europe
The rising reserve pushed the AUD below 0.7600, while the NZD settled just above 0.7200. The French Parliamentary elections confirmed a majority for the new President. Macron has been a revelation with a new political party sweeping aside the traditional left and right parties. A fresh start in Europe has allowed markets some optimism and equities gained ground
Posted on 20 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 15 - ANZAC dollars jump
The Dollar did not react to the rise, with the AUD jumping to 0.7570, while the NZD pushed up to 0.7240 The Dollar did not react to the rise, with the AUD jumping to 0.7570, while the NZD pushed up to 0.7240. German CPI was flat, while EU Industrial Production contracted , damaging any gains against the Dollar. The EUR barely held 1.1200, while the GBP consolidated the rebound, trading 1.2740.
Posted on 15 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 14 - US markets re-bound
The AUD traded 0.7530, while the NZD regained 0.7200 The EUR was steady around 1.1200, while the GBP rebounded to 1.2750, with stronger inflation and housing data. Political conditions remain tense, although a Conservative government will be formed, but the leadership may be fluid!? The AUD traded 0.7530, while the NZD regained 0.7200, ahead of local trade numbers set to be released.
Posted on 14 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 8 - All eyes on Brits
AUD jumped to trade around 0.7550, while the KIWI resisted 0.7200. All eyes remain on the UK election. The world record for continuous growth in GDP was set by the Australian economy, growing 0.3%, in line with expectations. The news was a boon for the currency, which jumped to trade around 0.7550, while the KIWI resisted 0.7200. All eyes remain on the UK election.
Posted on 8 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 6 - NZD tries 72c
the AUD to push through 0.7500. The NZD tested 0.7200 Markets were steady overnight with the Dollar and equities drifting. The ECB rate decision is expected to continue QE but may signal a change in attitude. The associated commentary may indicate the Central Bank may begin to recognise stronger economic conditions and accede to the Bundesbank's demands.
Posted on 7 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 3 - Brit Election Race fears
The Dollar did suffer the latest jobs data, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.1300 The Dollar did suffer the latest jobs data, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.1300, while the JPY hit 110.40. The GBP will continue to track the pending election polls, holding below 1.2900, as the race tightens. It would be a massive upset in the Labour party upset the Tories, on a Brexit scale, which would collapse the currency
Posted on 4 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 2 - Trump plays to the gallery
The NZD slipped back to 0.7050, while the AUD continued to unwind, falling below 0.7400 Trump withdraws from the Paris Climate agreement and US markets loved it! Great news for the US economy and the energy sector allowing equities and the Dollar to rally strongly. Trump elaborated on the agreement, pointing out the damage it does to the US economy, while pointing out the Chinese and Indian economies have a free-for-all.
Posted on 2 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 1 - NZD looking for a new home
The NZD is building technical resistance at 0.7100, while the AUD slipped back to 0.7425 The NZD is building technical resistance at 0.7100, while the AUD slipped back to 0.7425, unaided by weaker commodity prices. There has been a slew of global economic data, but most in line with expectations, so a surprising number or a Geo-Political event may be needed to spark the stalemate.
Posted on 1 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - May 26 - KIWI goes higher
The NZD pushed above 0.7050, while the AUD slipped back to 0.7440 The only currency unaffected by the rally in the reserve was the KIWI!? The strong fiscal position, demonstrated by the Budget, has given the local currency legs. The NZD pushed above 0.7050, while the AUD slipped back to 0.7440, as a contrast between disparate fiscal positions are drawn.
Posted on 27 May