Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 4, 2014- AUD and KIWI surge

by Collinson FX on 7 Apr 2014
Peter Burling, A-class catamaran World Championships, Day 2, Takapuna February 12, 2014 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 4, 2014

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Non-Farm Payrolls added 192,000 jobs but missed expectations and was lower than last month. This did little for equity markets, lead lower by the tech heavy NASDAQ, and followed by the remaining bourse. The close to the week was a depressing one, as Employment data is now such an intrinsic part of the Fed's policy making process, thus the market direction.

The news was not good for the Dollar, which lost ground against commodity currencies, with a weaker reserve measure.The AUD surged towards the 0.9300 level and the KIWI traded just below 0.8600.

The coming week will be highlighted by trade data from Asia, Europe and the US and will also look at inflationary pressures globally. When inflation does arrive it may have some vengeful momentum so emergence is closely monitored. Central Bank activity and commentary remain the major driver, influenced by global growth data, with a massive proviso for Geo-Political shocks.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 3, 2014
Equity markets continued to test highs, with economic data supporting a slow global recovery, and the Fed pledging to fuel the liquidity bubble. Geo-Political threats from Europe subside and the focus is upon the economy.

In particular the US Economy, which has slowly awakened from an extended recession. Factory Orders increased 1.6%, beating expectations and the previous months number. The ADP Jobs reported private sector jobs improved by 191,000, setting up another strong Non-Farm payrolls on Friday.

The Dollar rebounded overnight with the positive economic data, pushing the GBP back to 1.6620 and the EUR to 1.3750. Bad news on the commodity front in NZ, in particular dairy prices, forced the KIWI down a cent to 0.8550.

The AUD continued to ride the wave of positive economic news holding 0.9240. All eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls and in a prelude from the Challenger Job Cuts report. Markets will remain positive, save nasty surprises economically, or any deterioration in the Ukraine.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 2, 2014
Equity markets continued to display optimism as fears over the Ukraine subside and economic activity continues to improve. Manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the US all point to slight improvements, which allow investors to surge ahead with equities. Yellen reinforced the Fed's intention to continue the extra-ordinary stimulus via Monetary Policy which provides ample liquidity.

The European markets also attempted to return to normal with steady Manufacturing PMI data and Unemployment (albeit extremely high!). The EUR tries to break 1.3800 with undue pressure on the Dollar. The US liquidity prevents any short term rally in the currency allowing some return to relative strength from opposites.

The commodity currencies are trading strongly with the KIWI 0.8650 and the AUD 0.9240. The RBA left rates unchanged yesterday, as expected, and provided little in the way of economic insight other than a slight uptick in Employment. Geo-Political events present the only real threat to bullish sentiment.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 1, 2014
Equity markets surged to wipe out last weeks losses and confidence surged. European markets settled with assurances from Russia that invasion of the Ukraine was not anticipated. Russia has reached out to the West to settle things down and pocket gains already achieved in the Crimea.

There is a reason to doubt this, with up to 80,000 troops massing on the border and Russian expansionism, hardly sated. This is a chess game, timing is essential, a combination of wit and military force will prevail short-term. The EUR settled at 1.3770 and the GBP gained back to 1.6680. Yellen has endorsed tapering but also observed 'unprecedented monetary stimulus will continue for an extended period' to combat a slack labour market. Australian New Home Sales rose, ahead of the RBA rate decision today, which has continued to boost the currency.

The AUD broke back above 0.9250, with expectations of no action in interest rates, but a bias towards firming. The KIWI has continued to perform well, trading 0.8670, looking forward to important manufacturing data out in China, Europe and the USA. A big week for economic data releases although this could be overwhelmed by Geo-Political developments in the Ukraine.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 17 - Hard line on Brexit from May
The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings. The Trump inauguration, on Friday, has also been the major consideration of markets this week. Doubts have surfaced about global trade and predatory industry/corporate tactics driving nervous speculation. The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings.
Posted today at 4:23 am
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 16 - Market jitters over US moves
NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100. Markets remain in a flux ahead of this week's US Inauguration with high expectations and uncertainties. The Dollar settled, with the EUR trading 1.0640, while the Yen held 114.00. NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100.
Posted on 16 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13 - Trump can't save dollar
The AUD continued to rally strongly, pushing toward 0.7500, while the NZD set to break out targets at above 0.7200 The markets reversal began during the Trump press conference the previous day and continued as analysts digested the repercussions. The 'Trump effect' has been dented as a wider discussion ensues. Trumps promises of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and deregulation have been roundly welcomed and boosted the equity markets and the Dollar.
Posted on 13 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 12 - Late reversal for USD
A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000! The focus remains on the US and the incoming administration. Update in late market trade in the US. A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000!
Posted on 12 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 11 - US Confidence surges
The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Australian Consumer Confidence also surged, pushing to 120.1 from 113.40, which has influenced the local currency. The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Markets remain focused on the incoming US administration while economic data drives daily direction.
Posted on 11 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 10 - Australia moves ahead
The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Australian economic data was positive, with construction rebounding, while Building Approvals jumped. The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Economic data will drive markets in the lead up to the inauguration of Trump!
Posted on 10 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 7 - US markets and dollar rebound
The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. Non Farm Payrolls added 156,000 jobs versus an expected 204,000, while the Employment number crept up to 4.7%, although wage growth was positive. The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. The Trump dynasty fast approaches and expectations are high.
Posted on 9 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 6 - US turns negative corner
AUD jumping to 0.7330, while the NZD spiked above the big figure of 0.7000 These employment reports may have cast some uncertainty on markets, as equities fell and the Dollar retreated, with the first negative moves in the US this year. The EUR jumped towards 1.0600, while the Yen moved to 115.00, underlining the Dollar weakness.
Posted on 6 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 5 - Trump arrival drives markets
The AUD took advantage of the retreating reserve, rallying strongly to 0.7270, while the NZD bounced off 0.6900 Trump has indicated a massive fiscal stimulus and dramatic tax reform, combined with deregulation, has seen confidence soar. European Services and Composite PMI managed to move in the right direction but the EU remains challenged. The Dollar has suffered some profit taking, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.0500, while the GBP broke above 1.2300.
Posted on 5 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 4 - Markets open on positive note
Stock markets opened on a positive note for 2017, boosted by strong manufacturing PMI data from China and the USA Stock markets opened on a positive note for 2017, boosted by strong manufacturing PMI data from China and the USA, providing a stable economic base for further growth. Chinese PMI rallied, as did the US PMI and ISM manufacturing, confirming a recovery in this sector globally.
Posted on 4 Jan