Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 26, 2013 - Poms avoid a bath

by Collinson FX on 27 Apr 2013
Foiled - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.richardgladwell.com

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 26, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets were positive again after some good news in the UK boosted confidence. The GBP shot up, trading well above 1.5400, after GDP grew 0.3% thus avoiding the dreaded triple dip recession.

European markets welcomed the signs of recovery despite Spain hitting new record highs in Unemployment. In the US, markets were strong earlier after Weekly Jobless Claims fell but the rally unwound after some negative comments from Bernanke. Bernanke commented on the vulnerabilities still existing in the markets. The concentration of risk in the few remaining big banks have meant regulation is necessary and the system remains open to runs.

The comments saw the DOW plunge after a day long rally and means we are not out of the woods yet. The commodity currencies settled after unsettling comments, with the AUD slipping below 1.0300 and the KIWI holding 0.8500 after a squeeze up during ANZAC day.

NZ markets will look closely at the trade data released today and may impact the NZD during the domestic trading day. Bernanke's warnings mean market participants must remain vigilant and for serious systemic risks to the downside exist as May approaches!


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 24, 2013
Markets recovered as the bulls assumed control again with Bernanke providing all the necessary support.

Markets were frightened earlier when AP Tweets were hacked sending out a false report of explosions at the Whitehouse. Markets tumbled into negative territory but quickly recovered when the scam was uncovered.

Earlier Asian markets were lower with weaker HSBC flash PMI for China, revealed lower Manufacturing than expected. European markets shook this off with stronger PMI data from France. Equities thrive on the excesses of Central Bank largesse while currency values are eroded.

The EUR dropped below 1.3000 and the GBP to 1.5240. New Home Sales in the US recovered, rising 1.5%, and giving some economic support to the equity rally. The DOW looks set to have a go at the 15,000 mark before the May correction hits markets.

The AUD has suffered the risk aversion trade but is trying to consolidate around 1.0250 with the Leading Index rising by 0.3%. The KIWI is testing 0.8400 on the downside and both commodity currencies are vulnerable to rising equity risks.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 23, 2013

Equity markets were flat again to open the new week with the bulls attempting to get the car back on the road. Liquidity still flows thick and fast from the Fed, BoJ and ECB fueling the bubble in equities, although signs of the commodity bubble deflation is upon us and is sending nervous jitters through equities investors.

The endless cash printed by Central Banks has funded a massive move to equities and made the Investor class rich. Main Street has not had the spare cash to invest as living costs have been spiraling despite the lack of ‘measured inflation’. The EU has been imposing austerity as the single currency prevents market mechanisms righting the ship but this has been largely unsuccessful as growth has contracted and debt has continued to overwhelm many. Debt/GDP has now climbed to 90.6% from 87.3% for the whole Eurozone.

This should strike a warning bell if not flat out panic. The Central Bank corruption of currencies has funded the debt binge and now they cannot return to real interest rates as the service of debt would be impossible! In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index contracted further than expected and Existing Home Sales fell 0.6%, reaffirming the weakness in economic data. The fear will spread as May approaches and reality hits home.

Commodity currencies continue to soften with the AUD 1.0265 and the KIWI 0.8400 as risk appetite continues to decline. It would pay to be very vigilant and square to short over the next week or so.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 30 - Calm heads lead recovery
Markets are regaining sanity with the return of reason. The Brexit has not changed anything The U.K. will focus on alternative markets, with Commonwealth members lining up at the door, restoring historical trade links. The EU have failed to enact any substantial trade agreements globally, with negotiation of bureaucrats taking years, stalling market expansion. This has been one of the main problems of a protectionist Union and now Britain will be free!
Posted on 30 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 29 - Dust settles on Brexit
The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The dust is starting to settle post Brexit. Equity markets are regaining some lustre as reality dawns. The British PM met with European leaders, bring a certain reality home, while warning of an amicable divorce. Markets are looking for certainty and confidence, while the Dollar charges on.
Posted on 29 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 28 - Europe bleeds post-Brexit
European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK The EUR held steady on 1.1000, despite safety flows to the USD and Yen. European equities continue to haemorrhage, suggesting the Brexit may impact the EU more than the UK, shedding almost 12% in the two post Brexit fallout. The FTSE has only dropped 6% since the poll, while US markets even less, with risk of further exits in the offing.
Posted on 28 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 26 - Europe is biggest loser
The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally The Brexit is a bigger disaster for the EU than the UK. The British are now free to pursue trade, globally, assuming the greatest trade nation status it once occupied. Buy GBP's! More exports for NZ and Australia! The Dollar was the safe haven play as expected.
Posted on 25 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 25 - Markets initially hope IN
Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated Markets traded as if 'remain' had won the brexit referendum, as polls and odds indicated, with equities surging and the Dollar surrendering recent gains. The results will be out soon enough, but the implications are clear, with the GBP surging to 1.4915. The retreat in the Dollar was reflected across the board, with the EUR rising to 1.1350
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 23 - Markets on eggshells
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. Yellen, the Fed President, completed her second day in front of law makers. She cited the disastrous Non Farm Payrolls numbers last month, referring to it as 'transitory', confirming interest rate rises. Rhetoric is fairly empty. although hugely important to markets, driving the Dollar lower.
Posted on 24 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 24 - Waiting for Brexit
Brexit remains the only issue driving markets overnight. The Dollar is treading water, ahead of the Brexit vote, with the EUR holding below 1.1300 and the JPY crawled above 104.00! The GBP remains below 1.4700, recovering with the resurgent 'remain' campaign, although the race will be tight. Bookies are overwhelmingly with the status quo, so it is hard to see a radical result, unfortunately.
Posted on 23 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 22 - Brexit swing spooks Brits
The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. The AUD breached 0.7500 overnight, but settled back around 0.7470, driven by a drifting Dollar. The KIWI hit year highs, around 0.7169, but retreated back to 0.7150. All eyes remain on the UK vote, which will consume markets for the entire week, with the latest polls driving currencies and equities.
Posted on 22 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 21 - Brexit poll points to stay
UK Brexit polls turned sharply over the weekend, surging in a reversal, leaning back to the remain campaign. Commodity prices regained some momentum, bolstering the associated currencies, pushing the NZD to 0.7100 and the AUD to 0.7450. This is a week where the referendum will dominate markets and change seems unlikely. The dire warnings and pressure internally and externally are overwhelming.
Posted on 21 Jun
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 18 - Bookies tip Brits to stay
The KIWI has attracted further interest, post GDP, trading around 0.7050. The aftermath of the murder of the Yorkshire MP has left an unnatural silence hanging of the suspended Brexit debate. The intermission is likely to end in a subtle finger pointing from the 'stay' campaign, as desperation rises, to combat polls. The bookies still have the remain mob winning, which is probably likely, as change is more difficult.
Posted on 19 Jun