Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 26, 2013 - Poms avoid a bath

by Collinson FX on 27 Apr 2013
Foiled - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 26, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Equity markets were positive again after some good news in the UK boosted confidence. The GBP shot up, trading well above 1.5400, after GDP grew 0.3% thus avoiding the dreaded triple dip recession.

European markets welcomed the signs of recovery despite Spain hitting new record highs in Unemployment. In the US, markets were strong earlier after Weekly Jobless Claims fell but the rally unwound after some negative comments from Bernanke. Bernanke commented on the vulnerabilities still existing in the markets. The concentration of risk in the few remaining big banks have meant regulation is necessary and the system remains open to runs.

The comments saw the DOW plunge after a day long rally and means we are not out of the woods yet. The commodity currencies settled after unsettling comments, with the AUD slipping below 1.0300 and the KIWI holding 0.8500 after a squeeze up during ANZAC day.

NZ markets will look closely at the trade data released today and may impact the NZD during the domestic trading day. Bernanke's warnings mean market participants must remain vigilant and for serious systemic risks to the downside exist as May approaches!


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 24, 2013
Markets recovered as the bulls assumed control again with Bernanke providing all the necessary support.

Markets were frightened earlier when AP Tweets were hacked sending out a false report of explosions at the Whitehouse. Markets tumbled into negative territory but quickly recovered when the scam was uncovered.

Earlier Asian markets were lower with weaker HSBC flash PMI for China, revealed lower Manufacturing than expected. European markets shook this off with stronger PMI data from France. Equities thrive on the excesses of Central Bank largesse while currency values are eroded.

The EUR dropped below 1.3000 and the GBP to 1.5240. New Home Sales in the US recovered, rising 1.5%, and giving some economic support to the equity rally. The DOW looks set to have a go at the 15,000 mark before the May correction hits markets.

The AUD has suffered the risk aversion trade but is trying to consolidate around 1.0250 with the Leading Index rising by 0.3%. The KIWI is testing 0.8400 on the downside and both commodity currencies are vulnerable to rising equity risks.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 23, 2013

Equity markets were flat again to open the new week with the bulls attempting to get the car back on the road. Liquidity still flows thick and fast from the Fed, BoJ and ECB fueling the bubble in equities, although signs of the commodity bubble deflation is upon us and is sending nervous jitters through equities investors.

The endless cash printed by Central Banks has funded a massive move to equities and made the Investor class rich. Main Street has not had the spare cash to invest as living costs have been spiraling despite the lack of ‘measured inflation’. The EU has been imposing austerity as the single currency prevents market mechanisms righting the ship but this has been largely unsuccessful as growth has contracted and debt has continued to overwhelm many. Debt/GDP has now climbed to 90.6% from 87.3% for the whole Eurozone.

This should strike a warning bell if not flat out panic. The Central Bank corruption of currencies has funded the debt binge and now they cannot return to real interest rates as the service of debt would be impossible! In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index contracted further than expected and Existing Home Sales fell 0.6%, reaffirming the weakness in economic data. The fear will spread as May approaches and reality hits home.

Commodity currencies continue to soften with the AUD 1.0265 and the KIWI 0.8400 as risk appetite continues to decline. It would pay to be very vigilant and square to short over the next week or so.

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 25/26 - Trumpism now constipated
The NZD has consolidated above 0.7000, with little impact from the RBNZ rhetoric and inaction Republicans abondoned the Healthcare bill to replace Obamacare. This is the first big legislative step from the Trump administration and does not bode well for the coming agenda. The market rally has been built on the positive pro-growth agenda the Trump administration has projected.
Posted on 27 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 23 - NZD rallies against trend
Commodities continued to lose ground and the AUD suffered, falling below 0.7700, while the NZD bucked the trend. Commodities continued to lose ground and the AUD suffered, falling below 0.7700, while the NZD bucked the trend. The NZ Dairy Auction was surprisingly bullish, paving the way for a rally in the currency, pushing up to 0.7050. The RBNZ will announce the rate decision this morning, with no movement expected, although rhetoric is likely to impact.
Posted on 22 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 22 - DOW drops 200 points
The AUD fell below 0.7700, after the Bank observed the Feds 'rate rise policy' Oil prices resumed their downward moves, reflecting commodity prices, in general. This did not assist the associated currencies, with the NZD drifting to 0.7020, while the RBA impacted the AUD. The RBA minutes revealed concerns over the growing real estate bubble and weak wage growth, but it was the commentary on the US Dollar that hit the currency.
Posted on 21 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 20 - GBP slips on Brexit news
The AUD pushed back to 0.7700, while the NZD regained 0.7000, awaiting Mondays Dairy Auction. The GBP slipped after the UK PM, Theresa May, confirmed the trigger of Article 50 on March 29. Oil prices drifted lower and the Chicago Fed Manufacturing Activity Index remained positive. The softer reserve allowed commodity currencies to book further gains, with the AUD consolidating above 0.7700, while the NZD pushed towards 0.7050.
Posted on 21 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 19 - Handbrake pulled on excess
The AUD pushed back to 0.7700, while the NZD regained 0.7000, awaiting Mondays Dairy Auction. What could have been a tumultuous week, Geo-Politically and Economically, faded into obscurity. The Fed raised rates, as expected, pushing a dovish commentary to calm any excesses. The Dutch election saw the status quo come through virtually unscathed, allowing a massive sigh of relief for the EU, with the anti immigration party also being anti-EU.
Posted on 19 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 17 - Dutch Brexit fails in poll
The AUD slipped back to 0.7660, while the KIWI drifted back to 0.6970, awaiting the resumption of the Dollar run. The Dutch elections spread relief through European markets after the failure of the far right, anti EU party to live up to pre-poll expectations. The preservation of the status quo, will reduce fears held for the EU, especially considering the pending elections in France and Germany.
Posted on 16 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 16 - US Int Rate up, Dollar down
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, for the second time post-GFC The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, for the second time post-GFC, confirming the embarkation of a rate rise program for 2017. There were no surprises and the associated commentary confirmed the economic recovery and calmed markets. 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact'! The Dollar retreated after the anticipated rate rise
Posted on 15 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 15 - Oil prices drop
Oil Prices hit the headlines overnight, falling to $47.70, hitting energy companies and dragging equities lower. Oil Prices hit the headlines overnight, falling to $47.70, hitting energy companies and dragging equities lower. The lower prices are a direct result of oversupply, with global stocks rising, as production does not inhibit. Equities were not assisted with the prospect of rising interest rates, as the FOMC sat down for their two day meeting, with high expectations.
Posted on 14 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 14 - Big week ahead
AUD back below 0.7600, while the NZD has regained 0.6900 Markets were steady on what could develop into a huge week for currencies. This coming week the UK look to trigger article 50, the 'Brexit' clause, which will impact the GBP. The Dutch go to the elections and a strong showing of the anti-EU parties could adversely impact the EUR, both short term and fundamentally.
Posted on 13 Mar
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Mar 11-12 - KIWI recovers above 69c
Commodity currencies regained some ground, with the AUD back to 0.7550, while the KIWI jumped back above 0.6900. The Dollar has been on a bull run, which is likely continue, when the Fed embarks on a rate rise program for 2017. The Dollar settled to close the week, with the EUR jumping to 1.0690, supported by stronger than expected German trade data. Commodity currencies regained some ground, with the AUD back to 0.7550, while the KIWI jumped back above 0.6900.
Posted on 12 Mar