Please select your home edition
Edition
Collinson and Co

Collinson FX Market Commentary- April 20, 2013 - Week closes quietly

by Collinson FX on 21 Apr 2013
Georgia Racing and Wired - 2013 Auckland Cup, Day 3 © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX market Commentary: April 20, 2013

http://itunes.apple.com/app/collinsonfx/id533360650?mt=8!Click_here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Markets were quiet to close a negative week with the US preoccupied with the Marathon bombing and the hunt for the bombers. The fallout will evolve in the new week with developments impacting markets.

Next week will see important data releases from Europe and the US while Asia will focus on Chinese PMI and Japanese Central Bank moves.

The KIWI will be watched closely with the Reserve Bank announcing a rate decision during the week. There are no real expectations of moves either way. The commodity currencies were unsettled by the instability during the week and look vulnerable. The AUD has slipped below 1.0300 and the KIWI sitting just below 0.8400. Markets will be tentative as Geo-Political developments unfold.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 19, 2013

Equities continued to tumble with economic fundamentals starting to impact the LaLa land the bulls have been occupying this year. The domestic terrorism has brought some introspection on markets and allowed reality back into the equation. This has also caused some questions to arise in Asia and the microscope has focused on Chinese growth.

The numbers are starting to disappoint and warning signals are flashing with regards domestic debt levels and real estate bubbles. This has impacted commodities which have seen a major correction and impacted associated currencies.

The AUD trades around 1.0300 and the NZD is struggling above 0.8400 with local Consumer Confidence rising but the walls are closing in.

Earnings in the US are in line but top line revenues are not meeting expectations which is undermining confidence as productivity gains can only go so far without impacting capacity. It does seem the May mood is immersing the markets early!


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 18, 2013
Equities took another big hit sparked by increasingly bad news from Europe. Egan-Jones downgraded Germany and New Vehicle Sales fell by more than 10% setting a worrying trend. The fear that Germany would join the malaise is fast becoming a reality.

The EUR traded 1.3020 and the GBP 1.5230 which is not hugely significant considering the growing heat from the 'currency wars'. In the US, the Beige Book came in expectedly weak with modest to moderate growth across most regions. The uncertainty from US domestic terrorism and instability from North Korea and Europe are now impacting markets.

Risk appetite is under pressure and this is reflected in commodities and associated currencies. The AUD fell below 1.0300 and the KIWI 0.8430.


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 17, 2013

Markets were hit hard after the terrorist attack on the Boston marathon. The first major terrorist attack on the US mainland since 9/11 has shaken America and the markets. Markets were lower as sentiment had slipped earlier with the major hit to commodities lead by the collapse in Gold.

The rebound occured overnight with the DOW making triple digit gains and Gold rebounding strongly. This was expected and the question is to the validity of the recovery or a 'dead cat bounce'? In Europe things continue to unwind economically with the German and EU ZEW Economic Sentiment reports released and disappointing. These indicators are a very important litmus tests for the state of the EU economy and both have been hit hard reflecting the dire state of the single market. In the US, earnings continued to add to the confidence of the Bulls and Housing Starts rose 7%. Unfortunately Building permits fell 3.9% contradicting the data in this sector.

The Fed continues to keep the foot flat to the floor pushing risk assets higher crushing the negative economic fundamentals revealed by statistics. The inexorable rise in equities continues and to buck Bernanke is standing front of the runaway freight train!

This has given solace to the commodity currencies who drew confidence from the rebound with the AUD moving back to 1.0380 and the KIWI to just under 0.8500. The Bull run has resumed although Geo-Political issues remain a major obstacle with real economic realities hitting home. May is on the way!


Collinson FX market Commentary: April 16, 2013
Explosions around the Boston marathon has sent fear through markets. Equities crashed after domestic terrorism again hit the USA. Responsibility has not yet been claimed, or afforded, but it does seem terrorism has again hit at the heart of America, the Boston Marathon.

Equities were hit hard, with the Dow down 200, and associated risk assets also taking it on the nose. The AUD was impacted earlier after Chinese data concluded a fall in growth. Chinese GDP only grew at 7.7% missing the expectations of 8%. Industrial Production was lower, dipping below 10%, although it is hard to gauge the value of Chinese statistics. It is more a directional movement and this is the wrong way!

The main commodity currency has fallen from 1.0500 to trade 1.0350 and the KIWI below 0.8400 after testing 0.8600. Fear and instability always test risk markets and terrorism on American soil will scare many. It is not hard to guess the source.

Developments will determine the direction of markets, short term, but the fundamentals will probably enhance these instabilities. May is on the way!

For more on Collinson FX and market information see:
www.collinsonfx.com and www.collinsonwealthmanagement.com

Countries: | NZ: 0800 338 838 | AU: 1800 143 415 | NY: 1888 6257 833 | UK: 0800 0285 834 |


Disclaimer: The details expressed in this website and accompanying documents or transmissions are for information purposes only and are not intended as a solicitation for funds or a recommendation to trade. Collinson Forex Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damages suffered through any act or omission taken as a result of reading or interpreting any of the information contained or related to this site.

Collinson and Co

Related Articles

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 18 - Brits opt for Free Trade
AUD trading 0.7540, while the NZD moves towards the important technical level of 0.7200. The Dollar continued to drift, as the GBP surged to 1.2400, while the EUR pushed towards 1.0700. Commodity currencies continued to prosper the slide in the reserve, with the AUD trading 0.7540, while the NZD moves towards the important technical level of 0.7200. The inauguration on Friday is the market focus
Posted on 18 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 17 - Hard line on Brexit from May
The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings. The Trump inauguration, on Friday, has also been the major consideration of markets this week. Doubts have surfaced about global trade and predatory industry/corporate tactics driving nervous speculation. The AUD drifted back to 0.7470, while the NZD held 0.7100, with all currencies being vulnerable to US Dollar swings.
Posted on 17 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 16 - Market jitters over US moves
NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100. Markets remain in a flux ahead of this week's US Inauguration with high expectations and uncertainties. The Dollar settled, with the EUR trading 1.0640, while the Yen held 114.00. NZ Consumer Confidence was flat, lending little to a buoyant currency, which held 0.7100.
Posted on 16 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13 - Trump can't save dollar
The AUD continued to rally strongly, pushing toward 0.7500, while the NZD set to break out targets at above 0.7200 The markets reversal began during the Trump press conference the previous day and continued as analysts digested the repercussions. The 'Trump effect' has been dented as a wider discussion ensues. Trumps promises of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and deregulation have been roundly welcomed and boosted the equity markets and the Dollar.
Posted on 13 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 12 - Late reversal for USD
A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000! The focus remains on the US and the incoming administration. Update in late market trade in the US. A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000!
Posted on 12 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 11 - US Confidence surges
The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Australian Consumer Confidence also surged, pushing to 120.1 from 113.40, which has influenced the local currency. The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Markets remain focused on the incoming US administration while economic data drives daily direction.
Posted on 11 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 10 - Australia moves ahead
The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Australian economic data was positive, with construction rebounding, while Building Approvals jumped. The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Economic data will drive markets in the lead up to the inauguration of Trump!
Posted on 10 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 7 - US markets and dollar rebound
The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. Non Farm Payrolls added 156,000 jobs versus an expected 204,000, while the Employment number crept up to 4.7%, although wage growth was positive. The Dollar also resumed upward momentum, with the EUR slipping to 1.0540, while the Yen retreated to 117.00. The Trump dynasty fast approaches and expectations are high.
Posted on 9 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 6 - US turns negative corner
AUD jumping to 0.7330, while the NZD spiked above the big figure of 0.7000 These employment reports may have cast some uncertainty on markets, as equities fell and the Dollar retreated, with the first negative moves in the US this year. The EUR jumped towards 1.0600, while the Yen moved to 115.00, underlining the Dollar weakness.
Posted on 6 Jan
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 5 - Trump arrival drives markets
The AUD took advantage of the retreating reserve, rallying strongly to 0.7270, while the NZD bounced off 0.6900 Trump has indicated a massive fiscal stimulus and dramatic tax reform, combined with deregulation, has seen confidence soar. European Services and Composite PMI managed to move in the right direction but the EU remains challenged. The Dollar has suffered some profit taking, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.0500, while the GBP broke above 1.2300.
Posted on 5 Jan