Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 7 - KIWI falls further
by Collinson FX on 8 Oct 2016
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Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 7 - KIWI falls further
Oct 07 - Equity markets were static overnight ahead of the Non Farm Payrolls release tonight in the States. Expectations are low, with around 175,000 jobs to be created, while the Unemployment rate is estimated to settle below 5%.
The participation rate is at historical lows and reflects the reality of the situation. The Dollar continues to rally as markets continue to speculate a rate rise from the Fed. The EUR dropped to 1.1150, while the GBP fell to 1.2640, mired in doomsday brexit scenarios.
Commodity currencies were not immune to the rising Dollar, with the AUD falling to 0.7575, while the KIWI has plunged to below 0.7150. All eyes remain on the NFP's and the speculation that will ensue! He's Our Rokkii in the Toorak!
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 6 - US Rate rise empty rhetoric
Oct 06 - Equities and Oil rebounded in the US, with some reasonable economic data, but not good enough for a Fed rate rise.
Oil is now fast approaching $50/barrel, post-Opec, while equities also gathered momentum on a weak reserve. Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing both turned positive, while expectations for job growth has tempered, allowing a soft ADP jobs report to slide.
Talk of a Fed rate rise is empty rhetoric on the eve of a Presidential election. The EUR held 1.1200, while the GBP trades on lows of 1.2750, despite positive UK economic data. Commodity currencies have reacted to a general campaign from the local Central Banks aided by reinforcement from the Dollar.
The NZD is now testing 0.7150, while the AUD holds above 0.7600, cementing one direction for the Trans-Tasman cross. Jobs numbers remain the market focus although tempered ambitions allow weak numbers.
Collinson FX Market Commentary - Oct 5 - Dr Phil says more of the same
Equities in Europe managed to book some gains, despite the threats hanging over the local banking sector, posed by the Deutsche Bank crises evolution.
The Brexit trigger had a big impact on the GBP and a spike in the Dollar added to recent woes. The GBP fell to 1.2740, despite improving economic data, while the EUR held 1.1200. US Construction contracted 0.7%, while the ISM Manufacturing Index rose, sending mixed messages to the market. US Equities contradicted European markets, falling as the Dollar gained ground.
The RBA left rates unchanged, under the newly appointed Governor (Dr Philip) Lowe, who embraced continuity in words and action. The AUD was steady until the rising reserve hit the currency overnight. The AUD fell to 0.7620, while the NZD looks to test 0.7200, aided by a weaker Dairy auction.
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