Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 3 - Brit Election Race fears
by Collinson FX on 4 Jun 2017
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Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 3 - Brit Election Race fears
The important Non Farm Payrolls missed expectations, but equity markets shrugged this off, rallying to new record highs. The important thing to equity markets is the Fed and their monetary policy. The fix remains, with record levels of QE, maintaining the bloated balance sheet.
The redress is being discussed and interest rates are going up but life in the alternate universe remains challenged. The coming week has a good look at global trade and growth data,while the RBA will address local markets and their interaction with global markets, with action unlikely.
The Dollar did suffer the latest jobs data, with the EUR pushing back towards 1.1300, while the JPY hit 110.40. The GBP will continue to track the pending election polls, holding below 1.2900, as the race tightens. It would be a massive upset if the Labour party upset the Tories, on a Brexit scale, which would collapse the currency. Political dynasties are under attack, both the right and the left, from an electorate unrepresented.
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 2 - Trump plays to the gallery
Trump withdraws from the Paris Climate agreement and US markets loved it! Great news for the US economy and the energy sector allowing equities and the Dollar to rally strongly. Trump elaborated on the agreement, pointing out the damage it does to the US economy, while pointing out the Chinese and Indian economies have a free-for-all.
The agreement is an economic equalizer, favouring expanding economies and hammering advanced economies. Socialism on a truly macro scale. The Dollar rallied, with the EUR slipping back to 1.1200, while the JPY traded 111.30. The GBP slipped below 1.2900, dominated by polls, as they tighten approaching election day.
The US ADP Jobs number was better than expected, a harbinger for Non Farm Payrolls, boosting economic confidence. The Climate Change developments should assist commodity prices but a rising reserve pushed the associated currencies. The NZD slipped back to 0.7050, while the AUD continued to unwind, falling below 0.7400. Look towards tonight Non Farm Payrolls numbers to close the week!
Collinson FX Market Commentary - June 1 - NZD looking for a new home
European Employment was static and inflation data lost pressure. EU CPI drifted lower, contradicting recent growth prospects, further adding to ECB continued QE status quo.
The ECB President has reiterated that monetary policy will remain extremely accommodative and this lends substance to that expectation. This did not stop the EUR regaining 1.1200, as the US Dollar drifted, with further rate rises by the Fed under question. The GBP is reacting to the polls, as the election approaches, with the latest poll suggested a strong Tory lead.
This has pushed the GBP back towards 1.2900 and will be volatile if the polls tighten. The NZD is building technical resistance at 0.7100, while the AUD slipped back to 0.7425, unaided by weaker commodity prices. There has been a slew of global economic data, but most in line with expectations, so a surprising number or a Geo-Political event may be needed to spark the click here and here Or for the latest update click here
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