Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13 - Trump can't save dollar

by Collinson FX on 13 Jan 2017

Start of PIC Coastal Classic - October 21, 2016 - VXOne Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 13 - USD slides, big gains for rest

The markets reversal began during the Trump press conference the previous day and continued as analysts digested the repercussions. The 'Trump effect' has been dented as a wider discussion ensues. Trumps promises of lower taxes, fiscal stimulus and deregulation have been roundly welcomed and boosted the equity markets and the Dollar.

The questions rise with trade protectionism and assaults on individual companies and industries. The latest victim was the Pharmaceutical industry and the fallout was felt in the health care and biotech companies on markets. Equities dived and the Dollar went with it. The EUR jumped to 1.0640, while the Yen has moved back to 114.00, as volatility spikes. The fall in the reserve has accentuated recent strength in commodities and the associated currencies.

The AUD continued to rally strongly, pushing toward 0.7500, while the NZD managed to break technical levels on the upside. The KIWI has blasted through moving averages and now looks at break out targets above 0.7200. The resumption of the trump rally could make this a distant memory in the lead up to the inauguration.

Start of PIC Coastal Classic - October 21, 2016 - VXOne © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 12 - Late reversal for USD

Trump held a big press conference as markets concentrate on the Trump effect. The incoming administration is promising lower taxes and less regulation, sending a strong positive message to markets, as confidence drives equity markets and the Dollar north.

The EUR slipped to 1.0480, while the GBP fell to 1.2100, as the Dollar regained ground. The rising reserve did little to tarnish the rejuvenated AUD, which is heading towards 0.7400, while the NZD struggles below 0.7000. NZ House Prices were strong on 12.5%, while Job Ads drifted lower, as the KIWI tries to keep up with the AUD rally.

The focus remains on the US and the incoming administration. Update in late market trade in the US. A dramatic reversal in the Dollar has seen the AUD surge to 0.7470, while the NZD broke strongly above 0.7000!

Start of PIC Coastal Classic - October 21, 2016 - VXOne © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 11 - US Confidence surges

Jan 11 - Equity markets continued to build momentum and trade around record highs, with confidence surging in the lead up to the new Trump regime in the USA, while the Dollar continues to trade at stronger levels.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism reports came out in the US, showing a big surge, reflecting recent economic data. The EUR trades 1.0570, while the Yen trades around 117.00, as expectations of further rate rises support the Dollar. Australian Consumer Confidence also surged, pushing to 120.1 from 113.40, which has influenced the local currency.

The AUD traded up to 0.7350, while the NZD slipped back below 0.7000, impacting the cross rate. Markets remain focused on the incoming US administration while economic data drives daily direction.

Start of Coastal Classic - October 21, 2016 - VXOne © Richard Gladwell www.photosport.co.nz

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Jan 10 - Australia moves ahead

Jan 10 - European markets were positive after some positive economic data contradicting recent numbers. German Industrial Production jumped, while both imports and exports expanded at a heartening pace, confirming the status of powerhouse in a challenged community.

The EUR improved to 1.0550, while the Yen cruised back towards 116.20, as the Dollars drifted. The GBP did lose ground, falling to 1.2150, after PM May hinted at a hard Brexit impacting trade with Europe. Australian economic data was positive, with construction rebounding, while Building Approvals jumped.

The AUD reflected this, pushing back to 0.7350, while the NZD regained 0.7000. Economic data will drive markets in the lead up to the inauguration of Trump!

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