Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 29 - KIWI's slide continues

by Collinson FX on 29 Apr 2017 Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 29 - KIWI's slide continues

April markets ended higher with the prospect of tax cuts from the Trump administration. Legislative action must come to sustain the confidence and support the rally. US GDP number was 0.7, against the expected number of 1.2%, which disappointed markets and dragged equities lower.

The GDP number is not likely to jump into the 3%+ range, until tax cuts and deregulations have been passed, implemented and digested! Markets are nervous with North Korea, the Middle East and the French Presidential run-off elections. The coming week will be impacted by these Geo-Political issues and punctuated by global employment data. The other big events are the FOMC meeting and the RBA.

The EUR held below 1.0900, while the GBP pushed to 1.2950, quietly posting big gains in the lead up to the UK General Election. Commodity currencies have lost substantial ground, especially against the cross rates, while the reserve continues to dominate. The real victim has been the KIWI, which has fallen to 0.6850, while the AUD has slipped below 0.7500.

A big week to come although May Day may signal a slow start.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 28 - KIWI remains low

The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and reviewed economic forecasts upwards. GDP was reviewed up while monetary policy was kept in place. There was a similar result from the ECB, with President Draghi observing 'downside risks had diminished' and the economic recovery was 'picking up pace'.

The ECB left rates unchanged and QE in place until at least December 2017. US Durable Goods Orders increased, but not at the expected pace, while Pending Home Sales contracted. German Consumer Confidence reflected improved economic conditions within the EC zone, while inflation was benign, leading in to the run-off Presidential election in France.

The EUR drifted below 1.0900, while the GBP continued to book gains, rising above 1.2900. Commodity currencies stabilised, with the AUD trading above 0.7450, while the NZD has fallen back to 0.6850. NZ and Japanese Trade data may influence local trade, while important Japanese Employment and Inflation data may show some improvement, in the light of yesterdays Bank of Japan statement.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 27 - KIWI plunges

Apr 27 - The huge rally in equities was triggered by the French elections and sustained by the tax cut proposals by the Trump administration. Overnight Treasury Secretary Mnunchen revealed the 'biggest tax cuts in US history'!

This policy must be passed in to legislation, which Trump has had limited success, to date. Markets in Europe remain calm, in the lead in to the run-off Presidential elections in France, as pundits predict an easy victory for the Centrist Macron.

The EUR dipped below 1.0900, while the GBP pushed to 1.2850, as the Dollar remains solid. The strength of the reserve was reflected in the Yen, trading 111.30, while hitting commodity currencies hard. The NZD has plunged to 0.6875, while the AUD has slipped to 0.7470, despite relatively strong CPI data. Economic data, earnings and Geo-Political events dominate markets.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 26 - French joy but ANZAC slides

Markets exploded in reaction to the first round of the French Presidential elections. The French CAC rallied over 4%, with Centrist candidate Macron, leading through to a run-off with LePen. Polls predict an easy win for Macron, who has been endorsed by the traditional left and right wing parties, but it is a two horse race?!

The next two weeks look like a cruise to victory, but any hint of a 'Brexit' or 'Trump' , will cause massive upheaval in markets. The EUR rallied to 1.0930, despite a push from the Dollar, reflected in the Yen which moved to 111.10!

Markets were closed for ANZAC day in Australia and NZ, with the currencies drifting, due to a rising reserve. The AUD slipped back to 0.7525, while the KIWI plunged through 0.7000, settling around 0.6950. Global economic data releases are plentiful for the coming week and should provide market direction with incidental Geo-Political events.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Apr 25 - Two week cruise to victory?

Markets exploded in reaction to the first round of the French Presidential elections. The French CAC rallied over 4%, with Centrist candidate Macron, leading through to a run-off with LePen. Polls predict an easy win for Macron, who has been endorsed by the traditional left and right wing parties, but it is a two horse race?!

The next two weeks look like a cruise to victory, but any hint of a 'Brexit' or 'Trump' , will cause massive upheaval in markets.

The EUR rallied to 1.0850, despite a rally in the Dollar, reflected in the Yen which moved to 109.70! Markets are closed for ANZAC day in Australia and NZ, with the currencies drifting, due to a rising reserve. The AUD slipped back to 0.7550, while the KIWI looks to test 0.7000, on the downside. Global economic data releases are plentiful for the coming week and should provide market direction with incidental Geo-Political click here and here Or for the latest update click here

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