Volvo Ocean Race 2015 – Biggest challenges are around the corner
by Volvo Ocean Race on 23 Feb 2015
Team Alvimedica - Out of the doldrums,the pace quickens for the fleet on the race south to a light-wind trough of low pressure and the Vanuatu wind shadow. Nick Dana (R) and Alberto Bolzan (L) on the bow after a sail change - Volvo Ocean Race 2014-15 Amory Ross / Team Alvimedica
Volvo Ocean Race 2015 – 'This is the Doldrums?!?' – questioned Dongfeng’s OBR Sam Greenfield on a note to our desk. 'We’ve had the fastest and wettest downwind conditions yet on this leg (or the last) during this morning’s romp through the Doldrums, hitting 20-24 knots SOG.'
Yes, Sam this is the Doldrums - on an unpredictable race where challenges are always around the corner. Who would have guessed that the fleet was going to be sailing through the ITCZ doing average speeds from 12 to 22 knots?
'What a crazy night!' said Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing’s Skipper Ian Walker who is back in the lead.
'Huge clouds, loads of rain, massive gains and losses. Leg 4 has just been reset. Now we find ourselves sailing in 20 knots more wind than forecast and literally ripping towards Auckland. As fast as we make plans in the nav-station we are having to tear them up and start again.'
'As per normal we have positioned ourselves in the middle in the hope we will cover ourselves in the event of the unexpected. I am not sure how this will play out but would favour the guys in the east right now.'
Looking at the tracker, MAPFRE in second place is 16nm NE of ADOR, DFRT is in third 21 nm NE of ADOR. These three are neck and neck and making very similar speeds in the last 12 hours.
But the most interesting turn of events happened at 0130 UTC. Team Brunel was just 8 nm east of the Duff Islands when they decided to gybe to the east. They went left for 46 nm before gybing back to the south. They lost the lead but will this pay off?
They were the boat farther west before they gybed and they are now pretty much in the middle of the fleet 40 nm behind ADOR. Did they want to avoid the islands? Is this move dictated by the weather or a strategic choice to set them up for the light wind ahead?
'We have another 250 miles of good wind before another transition in light winds. We have to get this one right as time is running out to get to Auckland. It's turning into a fantastic race and with light winds forecast for the end it will surely be a nail biter,' says Ian Walker.
TODAY'S FORECAST
1) There are no areas of showers/squalls that suggest a tropical cyclone will form at this time
- we will have watch the remnants of TC Marcia, which is just ESE of Brisbane, as it could wander northward into warmer waters Tue and Wed
- also, we will need to watch around Fiji the middle and end of this coming week
2) Concentrated area of showers/squalls near 9s to Fiji and east of 169e this evening
- elsewhere, further west, the shower/squall activity is more widely scattered
- it appears the main shower/squall will occur around 10-14s and will be more widespread east of 172e
3) 1005mb low near 14-15s/164-167e this evening will move to 15-16s/164-167e by Mon morning
- this low will tend to move SW and will try to merge with the remnants of Marcia moving N
- by Wed morning, we will have a 998mb low near 22-23s/156-157e
- winds are quite light/variable around Vanuatu right now, but the NE, ENE, and E winds will be increasing near and west of 170e by Wed morning, S of 17-20s
4) 1005mb low near Fiji is smaller and more compact
- low is near 15-16s/176e-180 this evening
- by Mon morning the low will be near 15s/176-178e
- by Wed morning there will be a small 1002mb near or just S of Fiji
- this will lead to more widespread E, ESE, and SE winds east of 170e on Tue and Wed
5) High pressure near and SE of the Chatham Islands this evening is spread west to New Zealand
- this high will move slowly ESE the next 3 days
6) Cold front will reach southern South Island Wed morning, but will be slow to move NE across New Zealand
WEATHER
Sunday night and Monday, February 23
1) Broad area of weak low pressure, light winds, and scattered showers/squalls from Vanuatu to New Caledonia and also near Fiji
2) W-NW winds up to 14-20 kts at times N of 13s with squalls to 30 kts,
- but, there will be significant wind speed lulls in the middle and behind any showers/squalls
- wind speeds will diminish towards Vanuatu and will be a bit stronger to the E of Vanuatu
3) Much lighter and more variable winds between 13 and 16s
- this light and variable wind zone looks larger west of 166e than east of 166e
- in fact, the light wind area looks quite small around 170e during Mon
4) ENE winds 10-15+ kts start around 17s/west of 166e
- E/ESE winds 10-15+ kts start around 16s near 170e and N of 16s near 175e
- little change during Mon morning and Mon afternoon
5) Small northerly seas
Weather: Changeable skies with scattered showers and squalls.
Position report list
Leader: ADOR
Wind Speed: 13-21
Boat speed SOG (15 mins): 13-19 knots
Wind direction: 275º - 286º
Lowest boat speed: TBRU (14,6 knots)
Highest boat speed: ALVI (17,9 knots)
Lowest wind speed: ADOR (13 knots)
Highest wind speed: ALVI (21 knots)
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