Volvo Ocean Race – Sunshine and wind as fleet heads for Horn
by Volvo Ocean Race on 23 Mar 2015
Onboard Team Alvimedica - Charlie Enright on the helm as the clouds part for a momentary glimpse of sunlight with rain and squalls on the horizon - Leg five to Itajai - Volvo Ocean Race 2015 Amory Ross / Team Alvimedica
Volvo Ocean Race – Sunscreen and the Southern Ocean are not words often found in the same sentence, but liberal amounts are needed at the moment, under bright blue skies and fast reaching conditions.
The expectations of colder conditions have lulled the fleet into thinking that 11º air and 13º Sea temperature are tropical. Teams are using words like 'pleasant' and 'balmy' to describe the day.
The other interesting leg five oddity is that this may, for some boats, be the most northerly crossing of the Pacific Ocean in Volvo Ocean Race history. This is due to a small low-pressure system looking enticingly inviting, 1000nm to the north east of the fleet.
Matt Knighton talks about the possible split in an excerpt from his blog:
“The majority of the routings have us gybing north and staying north for most of the way towards the Horn as we aim to pick up a small low that will spin off four days from now,' he writes.
'However, the alternate routing has us sailing south along the ice gates – both get us to the Horn within hours of each other. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a split or if everyone follows the leader.”
So as Matt says, we will know who takes what option in the next 12 hours. The difference between the two options will be a cool, or should I say warm (!), 500nm split north to south.
While we wait for this exciting split to unfold, the pack has rotated to the right giving small gains to the southern fleet of SCA, MAPFRE and Dongfeng. To the north, Abu Dhabi report making gains on Alvimedica, the most northerly boat.
The one team that just keeps extending as the breeze picks up to the mid-twenties is the Dutch team, Brunel. With now over one third of the race to Cape Horn covered, Bouwe Bekking and his crew have picked the right time to find their edge.
The sun has set and the wind has increased, caution and a wise head is what’s needed during this night’s passage. Who will go north and who will stick to the ice limit south?
Daybreak in the Southern cean will shine sunlight on the answer. I hope they have packed enough sunscreen!
Synopsis
1) Tropical Cyclone Reuben, near 27s/173w, is dissipating and not a concern to the Volvo Fleet
2) We do need to monitor a 1001mb low pressure area near 29-30s/160-161w
- if the low pressure moves SE, it could bring headwinds to the fleet
- but, at this time, it appears the low pressure area will be trapped to the NW and N of the fleet by a 1024mb high pressure cell near 41-42s/172-176w
3) This high moves a bit to the NW during the next 24 hours, as a strong cold front moves ENE
- this high then moves E on Tue and Wed, reaching 41-42s/148-150w by 1200utc Wed
- if the high pressure does move that quickly E, then the low pressure cell will be trapped to the NW and N of the Volvo fleet
4) Series of strong cold front will bring strong winds and large seas to the fleet the next three days
- First cold front arrives from the WSW late Mon, utc time
- Second strong cold front arrives from the WSW late Wed, utc time
5) Large sprawling high pressure will be found just W and S of Cape Horn on Wed, but it should be long gone by the time the Volvo fleet arrives
6) Of more concern is a 1003 mb low near 39s/100-104w at 1200utc Wed
- this low will be intensifying and moving SE
- I think this low will pass E of the fleet, but could open the door for more low pressure to approach Cape Horn, from the NW next weekend
Today's weather
- Monday, March 23
1) At 1200utc Mon, the strong cold front will be near 51s/152w to 48s/165w and moving quickly ENE
- strong WSW and W winds of 25-40 kts, and maybe a bit more, will precede the cold front
- SW winds 35-50 kts with higher squalls will accompany the passage of the cold front, which will occur for the entire fleet late in the utc day
2) Winds are a bit stronger for the yachts to the E right now, but there will be lots of wind speed and large seas for the entire fleet today and tonight
- the worst of the conditions will be after 1800utc today and into Tue
Partly to mostly cloudy with showers and squalls likely after 1200/1500utc. The cold front will be arriving from the WSW and squalls could exceed 50 kts. W-SW seas up to 20-25 feet late today and tonight
| Position report at: 23 Mar 06:40 UTC / Updated 3 hourly |
DTL
(NM)
|
GAIN/LOSS
(NM)
|
DTF
(NM)
|
Speed
(kt)
|
 |
Team Brunel |
0 |
0 |
4813.9 |
21 |
 |
Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing |
53.4 |
0 |
4867.3 |
21 |
 |
Team Alvimedica |
67.4 |
 3 |
4881.4 |
20 |
 |
Dongfeng Race Team |
74.5 |
1 |
4888.4 |
21 |
 |
Team SCA |
88.4 |
2 |
4902.3 |
21 |
 |
MAPFRE |
89.3 |
1 |
4903.3 |
21 |
 |
Team Vestas Wind |
DID NOT START |
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