Volvo Ocean Race – Groupama 4 leading

by Franck Cammas on 29 Feb 2012 Volvo Ocean Race 2011-12 team Groupama are leading the fleet on the ninth day of the second stage of leg four at the 1600 UTC report.

A big wake is now being carved out between the Mariana Islands and the Vanuatu archipelago. Indeed making headway in consistent north-easterly tradewinds of around twenty knots, Groupama 4 is leading the way towards the equator, some 1,500 miles ahead. However, the point at which they traverse this system is not yet known and will very likely depend on the easterly monsoon.

Over the past 24 hours, Franck Cammas and his men have consolidated their lead over the New Zealanders. Indeed, even though the separation between the two boats hasn't varied dramatically in terms of distance to the goal (Auckland), it's the positioning which is becoming increasingly favourable since the whole fleet is targeting the same objective: traversing the ocean with the tradewinds till they're South of the equator. This Tuesday lunchtime, the six VO-70s were all just about benefiting from the same breeze: a NNE'ly air flow of around twenty knots, which is enabling them to reach towards the South-East in between 100° and 120° of true wind. Perfect conditions then, for making headway towards the Vanuatu archipelago at more than twenty knots.

Though the speeds are pretty similar, between 18 and 22 knots, the boats furthest East (to windward) have the advantage of being able to pull on the helm a little bit more and hence go faster. This is the case for the Americans who, having been caught up in a temporary lull, are on a course where they can bear away more to converge on the fleet. In fact there is a 200-mile lateral separation between the Spanish furthest West and Groupama 4, while Puma is still 40 miles further East. As they drop down towards Auckland, the sailors will see the tradewinds gradually shifting round to the North-East tonight, before clocking round to the ENE at noon on Wednesday and then virtually due East in the evening. The upshot of this will be a change in the angle that the boats attack the wind, forcing the trimmers to haul on the sails and the helmsman to negotiate what will be bigger waves which will be closer together. The average speed will drop as a result, but it won't be as significant the further East the boat is.

Given the grib files, it looks better to attack the Doldrums the furthest East possible and hence closer to Fiji rather than the Solomon Islands. From 5°N, which will become a reality in 1,000 miles and two and a half days at sea, the trades are likely to ease to around fifteen knots while the skies will become saturated with moisture. The squalls and the zones of calm are forecast to be highly developed to the East of New Guinea as far as the Solomon Islands. As such there's a compromise to be found between speed and heading to ensure they don't get too close to this equatorial snare.

Early this Tuesday afternoon, it had to be admitted that Telefonica, like Camper, were sailing in a wind which was more oriented towards the ENE (55°), whilst Groupama 4 and Abu Dhabi were making headway in a north-easterly breeze (45°) and Puma was still in a NNE'ly wind (32°). As a result there was a 10° difference in heading, which over three days with sheets eased transforms the current 200-mile East-West separation into one of over 500 miles! Whilst those furthest East will be able to tackle Melanesia via the Pandora Bank (between Vanuatu and Fiji), those furthest West will reach landfall at Guadalcanal or even Bougainville…

It's this landing place in this maze of equatorial islands which is essential. The first reason for this is that the Doldrums are less developed to the East. Secondly the wind will be less disrupted by the islands. Finally, the angle at which the crews can make landfall in New Zealand will be more favourable. As such Franck Cammas and his crew should be able to consolidate their lead over the next two days, since the tradewinds are now a lot more firmly in position and there is no strategic option possible. In this way, before the week is out, it's the passage of the equator which is set to become the real issue in the big downhill section of this blue run…

Position at 1600 UTC on 28/02/2012:
1. Groupama 4 some 3,560.4 miles from the finish
2. Camper – 59.4 miles astern of the leader
3. Telefonica - 79.4 miles astern of the leader
4. Puma - 86.6 miles astern of the leader
5. Abu Dhabi Ocean Racing - 109.3 miles astern of the leader
6. Team Sanya – 120.6 miles astern of the Groupama Sailing Team website