Collinson FX Market Commentary- Mar 18 - What's the Fed's fancy?

by Collinson FX on 18 Mar 2015 Collinson FX market Commentary: March 18, 2015

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Mar 18 - Equity markets drifted lower overnight due to positive economic data triggering speculation that the Fed may move towards interest rate rises.

EU and German ZEW sentiment reported a rise and EU inflation was higher, giving a reason to believe in a growth scenario, thus markets retreated. The EUR tested 1.0600, while the GBP meandered around 1.4750. Commodities were uninspired by demand, with prices drifting, giving little impetus to the associated currencies.

The AUD continued to look inhibited, trading just above 0.7600, while the NZD was testing 0.7300 on the downside. All eyes remain on the Fed's rate decision tonight!

Collinson FX market Commentary: March 17, 2015
Mar 17 - Markets continued to operate on speculation of Central Bank activity, in particular the Fed, who meet this week for a rate decision Wednesday (NY time).

Rumours that Yellen may remove the word 'patient' from her commentary have encouraged speculation over interest rises sooner rather than later. Economic data releases have only excused any impending action. Oil has dropped below $44/barrel which is indicative of the demand for commodities. A rise in US interest rates will drive equities lower and the Dollar higher but today the opposite is happening.

The fall in the Dollar was reflected in the EUR, which jumped to 1.0590, while the GBP moved up to 1.4835. US Industrial and Manufacturing data slipped lower and was confirmed by a weaker Empire State Manufacturing report. Australian New Vehicle Sales jumped 2.9%, as the currency clawed back to 0.7640, boosted by a flagging reserve.

The KIWI also booked gains, moving back to 0.7370, reflecting USD weakness rather than any domestic positives. The NZD Currently trades 0.6960 and 0.4965 against the EUR and GBP, little changed from yesterday.

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