Collinson FX Market Commentary: December 12, 2012 - Xmas rally stays

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Collinson FX market Commentary: December 12, 2012

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Equities continued the strong Christmas rally that began last week with confidence rising in Europe and the US.

In Germany the important ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose 6.9 after large recent losses and low expectations. Eurogeddon seems less important now Christmas is upon us and Politicians disappear to important domestic matters.

In the US, the Fiscal Cliff loses emphasis as boredom sets in with Political antics rather than higher expectations. Leave the leaders to it as an unfavourable solution will be found, however unattractive. The US Trade deficit continued to increase and small business optimism also fell.

The EUR regained 1.3000 as confidence returns and the GBP 1.6115.

Storm clouds gather in Australia with Business confidence unexpectedly collapsing from -1 to -9. This can be seen as a direct result of deteriorating economic conditions with rising costs and increased regulation. This failed to impact the currency which rose to 1.0525 with global confidence.

The KIWI surged to 0.8385 as Homes Sales rose 24.1% and QV House Prices by 5.7%! This is a product of demand and low interest rates coupled with exhorbitantly high building costs rather than improving economic conditions. Political developments will continue to provide direction to markets.

Optimists head back up the ramp - Wakatere Boat Club


Collinson FX market Commentary: December 11, 2012

Markets continued to rally, following last week's gains, with no bad news to drag them lower.

The 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations continued to be aired publicly and with a growing feeling that Republicans will concede the momentum to the Democrats and allow tax rates to rise. There seems to be no serious attempt to address the budget/debt blowouts that are spiralling out of control. The past form of Obama is to come to a last minute deal which will be a desperate compromise and do little to address the fundamental issues.

This crisis will be averted until the next one arrives and establishes a trend of lurching from one crises to the next. Solving none but playing politics and winning. The day of reckoning is nigh! In Europe, the technocrat PM Monti has announced his resignation with another election to be called. The Lazarus, Silvio Burlesconi, is set to make yet another return!

The EUR was not aided by the news with the single currency slipping to 1.2930 and the GBP 1.6065. German Trade data reflected growth with both exports and Imports rising although Italian GDP continued to contract immersed in recession. Chinese Trade remained strong but the rate of growth slipped with demand dragging exports back to 2.9% from previous 11.6% growth. Japanese GDP contracted 0.9% pointing to a slow down in Asia which will impact commodity demand.

This failed to hit the AUD, which is testing 1.0500 once again and the KIWI that continues to defy gravity, trading just over 0.8300. Markets will continue to focus on Political developments in Europe and the US as negative data is now expected and has little impact on equities, commodities or currencies.

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