by Collinson FX
- Etchells Invitation Series - November 12, 2013
Collinson FX market Commentary: November 28 2013
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The traditional quiet week of Thanksgiving in America continues, with little action in the Equity markets. Weekly Jobless Claims fell and Consumer Confidence surprised, beating expectations. Leading Indicators continued recent gains but Durable Goods Orders slipped back 2%. Improving economic news is slow and reflects the nature of the global economy. The likelihood of a reduction in QE Infinity remains slim with such a retarded recovery.
The EUR held steady at 1.3500 and the GBP 1.6250. Commodity currencies drifted with a weakening in prices. The AUD lead the charge lower, reinforcing recent losses. RBA Deputy Governor, Phillip Lowe, continued to 'jawbone' the currency lower testing 0.9050. The KIWI also slipped, in sympathy, to 0.8130, but are starting to look oversold, unless there is substantial action from the respective Central Banks or a turn around in the USD. Markets are expected to remain quiet with Thanksgiving a quiet week for an important US holiday.
Equity markets continued to test new record highs with little to impede the rise in Federal Stimulus. In the US, Pending Home Sales contracted 0.6% for the month and is now down 2.2% for the year!
Collinson FX market Commentary: November 26 2013
The recovery in housing seems to have 'hit the wall' this year and this may be confirmed with tonights important Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Building Permit releases. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index rose 1.9, but was well below the expected 5.0. The economy continues to struggle, which only reinforces the Fed's QE Infinity program. The Dollar stabilised with the EUR slipping to 1.3510 and the GBP 1.6150. Risk currencies have been undermined by a concerted verbal action by the RBA over the last few days.
The AUD has fallen back to 0.9150 and is under pressure, but lack of intervention and continued QE from the reserve currency, will see a reversal. The KIWI has also been undermined by these moves trading below 0.8200, but lower moves are at the margin, have been reflected in the record rises in the NZD/AUD cross rate. Watch for more economic activity releases and their interpretation, with respect to Central bank activity, to drive markets.
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