Volvo Ocean Race fleet splits ahead of Bay of Biscay gale

by Richard Gladwell/Sail-World.com on 8 Jun 2015 The seven boat Volvo Ocean Race fleet has split into two groups ahead of gale force winds expected to hit on the morning of June 9 UTC.

An inshore group led by Team Vestas Wind will be first to hit the winds expected to average 30kts, but likely to be gusting close to 40kts. The headwinds will hit the inshore group of Team Vestas Wind, Team SCA, and Dongfeng around 0100hrs on June 9, UTC.

The offshore group of Mapfre, Abu Dhabi, Team Brunel and Team Alvimedica will be hit by the same conditions six hours later.

As at the last sked at 0043hrs UTC on 08 June, with the exception of Dongfeng, all the boats are headed offshore on starboard tack. Dongfeng is expected to tack and join the inshore group once she has crossed astern.

With the exception of Dongfeng, the offshore group are the race leaders who are expected to be playing the usual game of staying with the herd, as they watch each other carefully on the AIS tracking system.

On the leaderboard, Team Vestas Wind is shown as being the current leader, however this is on a Great Circle route distance to finish basis, and has proven to be flawed many times in the past.

Using the weather routing function of Predictwind, Mapfre - as the most offshore boat of the offshore group, is projected to finish ahead of Team Vestas Wind - ignoring exclusion zones and other artificial sandtraps put into the course by Race Organisers.

www.predictwind.com!Predictwind uses up to four weather feeds which it adjusts for various factors before calculating the optimal route. The results from two of those show the the most rational and direct course, and both are in close to agreement on the time of the arrival of the strong winds - which increases the reliability of the prognosis.

As at 0043hrs on June 8, the offshore group are sailing in winds of 11.5kts and making 8.3kts of boat speed, while the inshore group are in much lighter winds of just 5.7 kts and are crawling at just 3.6kts. The routing is picking up this disparity in the breeze and speed and consequently sees the offshore group making a gain, on the basis of current weather data and boat position.

The boats have passed inside one Exclusion Zone as they left Lisbon and turned right to head to the Finish in Lorient, France 647nm distant on the direct route.

A second Exclusion Zone exists offshore from Cape Finisterre, and again the fleet will pass inshore of this zone, without too much impact on the optimal routing.

The wind maps from www.predictwind.com!Predictwind show a stationary area of strong wind at the entrance to the notorious Bay of Biscay, just past Cape Finisterre on the Spanish coast.

Interestingly Dongfeng, with a largely French crew on board, and expected to have the most local knowledge of the area have opted to move inshore, and given the fact that they are crossing the sterns of the other two boats, have taken a hit in making the move.

Clearly they stand to make a big gain on the leaderboard if they can get to finish first and have Team Vestas Wind and Team SCA between them and the fourth placed boat.

About Predictwind:

Developed by former Olympian, Jon Bilger (470, 1992), Predictwind application was used by the Swiss team Alinghi to win the 2003 and 2007 America's Cups, and has become the leading wind system used by racing and recreational sailors around the world. It is available on a subscription basis and also with a free forecast option.

A mobile app for Android and iPhone is available and www.predictwind.com!PredictWind is available for download

Real time local wind observations have been added as further functionality.

You can check the weather anywhere in the world, and get a five day forecast, plus a variety of other features and functions of www.predictwind.com!PredictWind. The app is synchronised with your PC, so that your latest set of locations are always available without resetting each time you change a device.