Phuket King's Cup Regatta - December 6 weather forecast

by Weather Routing Inc on 7 Dec 2012 Phuket King's Cup Regatta weather forecast for December 6, 2012

Synopsis: The latest satellite imagery shows scattered squalls near/south of Phuket into the northern Malacca Strait as well as ne'ward from there across s'rn Thailand and far n'rn Malaysia. A weak tropical low is also noted near far s'rn Vietnam and this is expected to weaken further and dissipate as it continues across Vietnam and into the Gulf of Thailand through tonight.

Elsewhere, a broad equatorial trough dominates the region from the Andaman Sea e'ward across Malaysia/s'rn Thailand and into the s'rn South China Sea. Little overall change is expected within this trough over the next 2-3 days.

Current Conditions: The latest land observations indicate light winds, with what little wind there is has tended from the east at 2-5kts. Available offshore observations indicated winds predominantly ne'ly 9-14kts

Severe Weather Potential/Advisories: The severe weather potential remains low for the next couple of days with nothing more than an isolated squall possible. The squalls may become slightly more numerous by Sunday afternoon, which may lead to locally gusty conditions in the vicinity of any squalls.

Conclusions: With light pressure gradients, wind speeds will remain low through the next 2-3 days. While ne'ly winds are expected to dominate (especially in the morning hours), periods of light onshore seabreeze winds will be possible during the afternoon.

Conditions for the Phuket King's Cup Regatta:

Fcst to	Wind dir	Wind spd	Combined seas	Hgt	Per	Sky conditions	Currents
		(kts)	Dir	(mtrs)	(sec)		Dir from/spd
Today (morn) (07lt)	Ne-e (45 - 90)	07-12 gusts 14	E-se	1.0/less	3	Partly cloudy. Isolated shwrs/squalls*	Ene @ 0.1
08lt	Ne-e (45 - 90)	07-12 gusts 14	E-se	1.0/less	3	Partly cloudy. Isolated shwrs/squalls*	Ene @ 0.1
09lt	Ne-e (55 - 100)	06-11	E-se	1.0/less	4	Partly cloudy. Isolated shwrs/squalls*	Ene @ 0.1
Today (morn/aftn) (10lt)	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	05-10	E-se	1.0/less	5	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
11lt	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	05-10	E-se	1.0/less	5	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
12lt	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	04-09	E-se	1.0/less	5	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
Today (aftn) (13lt)	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	03-08	E-se	1.0/less	6	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
14lt	Ene-ese (75 - 115)	03-08	E-se	1.0/less	6	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
15lt	E-se (90 - 130)	03-08	E-se	1.0/less	6	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
16lt	E-se (90 - 130)	03-08	E-se	1.0/less	6	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
Tom (07) (morn) (07lt)	Nne-ene (23 - 68)	07-12	E-se/mixed/ne	1.0/less	6	Clear	Ene @ 0.1
Tom (07) (morn/aftn) (10lt)	Nne-ene (23 - 68)	05-10	E-se/mixed/ne	1.0/less	6	Clear	Ene @ 0.1
Tom (07) (aftn) (13-16lt)	Ne-n (45 - 0)	03-08	E-se	1.0/less	9	Clear	Ene @ 0.1
Sat (08) (morn) (07lt)	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	08-13 gusts 15	E-se	1.0/less	8	Partly cloudy	Ene @ 0.1
Sat (08) (morn/aftn) (10lt)	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	06-11	E-se	1.0/less	10	Partly cloudy. Scattered shwrs/squalls*	Ene @ 0.1
Sat (08) (aftn) (13-16lt)	Ene-ese (68 - 113)	04-09	E-se	1.0/less	10	Partly cloudy. Scattered shwrs/squalls*	Ene @ 0.1
Comments:

* Winds and seas higher in squalls

Hedge: The confidence in the forecast not only for today but also through Saturday is most dependent on the timing and formation of a seabreeze.

Uncertainty in the seabreeze is near normal to slightly below normal for today. Gradients have eased even further than in the last couple of days, it would stand to reason that by mid afternoon areas within 01-02nm of the coast would stand the best chance for having winds turn more onshore se-s'ly.

By tomorrow, what is left of the low near Vietnam will be passing at its closes to Phuket and will act to turn the winds somewhat more n'ly in nature. The confidence in whether the seabreeze will be able to act in direct opposition to these winds is low, so confidence is slightly below normal, in particular for the afternoon

By Saturday, the gradient will have strengthened very slightly, allowing a return to more typical e-ne wind regime. An afternoon seabreeze will be possible here, and confidence in the forecast is near Weather Routing Kings Cup website