Please select your home edition
Edition
Burk - Marine Outlet

Escapade advice on Melbourne Osaka Two Handed Race strategy

by John Gough on 1 Apr 2013
Escapade at race start off Portsea on 17 Mar, Southern Cross in background - Melbourne Osaka Two Handed Race Brian Abbott
Melbourne Osaka Two Handed Race - A post from Joey: seemingly helpful advice to the other competitors?

Some Strategy Nonsense


Under normal circumstances, this rationale would have remained on board for a bit longer, but with no-one near enough to benefit from the blog info, we thought we could share it with you.

Before the race, I had spent some time looking at wind patterns. Especially the Oregon uni ocean wind record, 2000 - 2009. And how that data might have been influenced by ENSO variations during the recording period. And more especially how current ENSO status might vary the actual conditions from the historic average. Thank you Toby and William for guidance on ENSO. ENSO is currently neutral, or near enough so for our purposes. My conclusion was that winds in the area around and just north of the equator were more likely than the long term mean to be easterly in the area north of the Solomons, especially towards the east end. That meant that to get the minimum transition to the NE trades, go east. Of course a forecast, even at seven days, is better than a historical wind rose, but in the absence of a forecast, a wind rose is better than nothing. We have a file onboard that has wind roses up to 10 deg either side of the route, every three or four degrees all the way to Osaka.

That is one reason why we were very happy to have emerged from our beating of the first week in a position to fetch Lord Howe. And why we were happy to sail up the 160E line. All other things being equal, we might have gone completely east of the Solomons, and then stayed on north until into the trades. Three or four days ago, the forecast said the wind was going to drop out before the Solomons pretty much across the board, and so with no basis for a decision on how best to route, we continued north.

Then yesterday morning, the forecast situation over the next few days looked worse at 160 to 162E than at around 159. So we've turned 'left hand down a bit'. If this works out perfectly, then on Monday, we'll be just on the west side of a small weak clockwise circulation. And as a more uniform if very weak airflow comes in on Tuesday, we may be able to reach back towards the centre of the island chain, and subsequently pass through to head north. For a few days, easterlies are forecast across the region, and hopefully we could escape the doldrums with minimum pain.

One can but dream!

So we are aiming at a waypoint at 15.5S, 159E. And we'll re-analyse later this morning when we download a new grib file.

Meanwhile, we're running deep, wind 160 stbd, making 6kts in wind of 12-13, occasionally rolling and banging uncomfortably in light but crossing swells. Full main and 3/4 oz spinnaker. Sky clear. Sea temp 28.5.

Joey

Related Articles

Sailing in the Olympics beyond 2016 - A double Olympic medalist's view
Bruce Kendall takes a look at what he believes Sailing needs to do to survive beyond the 2016 Olympics. Gold and Bronze medalist and multiple world boardsailing/windsurfer champion, Bruce Kendall takes a look at what he believes Sailing needs to do to survive beyond the 2016 Olympics. A key driver is the signalled intention by the International Olympic Committee to select a basket of events that will be contested.
Posted on 29 Apr
From Olympic flag to Olympic Gold and maybe another
The Sydney Olympics was a Sailing double 470 Gold event for Australia. Having won the 420 World Championship in 2000, the feeder class to the 470, while still at school in Australia young Matt Belcher was given the honour of carrying the Olympic flag during the closing ceremony of the Sydney 2000 Olympics.
Posted on 28 Apr
Pantaenius – Smooth sailing is more than a favourable weather forecast
Pantaenius get ready to launch into their fourth year operating in Australia As Pantaenius get ready to launch into their fourth year operating in Australia, we get to see why they continue to grow their happy crew of customers. Sitting down with Pantaenius Australia’s MD, Jamie MacPhail, you immediately get a sense that the smooth sailing is a direct result of both their unique product and the marketplace’s willingness to embrace the better mousetrap
Posted on 27 Apr
100 days to Rio, are there potholes and bumps ahead?
The Road to Rio 2016 still has a few curves, bumps and potholes for teams battling to win in Hyeres. The Road to Rio 2016 still has a few curves, bumps and potholes for teams battling to win in Hyeres, at some World championship events and Weymouth World Cup but for most crews.
Posted on 26 Apr
Is George Lucas a sailor?
He’s very famous for a lot of things, and justifiably so. One of them is Industrial Light and Magic He’s very famous for a lot of things, and justifiably so. One of them is Industrial Light and Magic, which has been instrumental in the making of many of the special effects that have made the digital world so impressive. Gone are the smears of Vaseline along the bottom edge of the clear filter to hide the trolley that was actually transporting Luke Skywalker’s Speeder, for instance.
Posted on 25 Apr
America's Cup - Oracle Racing win in Court but with collateral damage
Oracle Racing have had another claim against them by a former crew member dismissed. Oracle Racing have had another claim against them by a former crew member dismissed. Mitchell focussed largely on the circumstances of the matter and introduced into the public arena some interesting documents to support his claims.
Posted on 23 Apr
Thou doth protest too much, me thinks
And no, we’re not off to analyse Hamlet right away. There’ll be no surtitles popping up on the top of your screen And no, we’re not off to analyse Hamlet right away. There’ll be no surtitles popping up on the top of your screen about now. At any rate, it is simply an adaptation of Lady Gertrude’s original line. We merely seek to use it as a way to demonstrate that when there is a lot of brouhaha going on, the smoke screen ultimately ends up as a lovely, colourful flag as to the real intent behind it.
Posted on 18 Apr
Children of the Internet, Rio and Hong Kong
I have four daughters, the youngest, who in her mid 20's is a true child of the Internet. I have four daughters, the youngest, who in her mid 20's is a true child of the Internet. The kind of conversations I have with her run along these lines.... In the olden days we did not have television until I left school and they had a thing called print magazines, that reported events between two weeks and four months after they happened. And her sceptical response... Hoh! Daddy, Hoh!
Posted on 14 Apr
Can World Sailing learn from dear old Oz?
Why just lay the drop sheets out and tape up the edges of the windows for a splash of paint Some time ago now, Sail-World proposed that ISAF had a really good opportunity at hand when it morphed into World Sailing (WS). Why just lay the drop sheets out and tape up the edges of the windows for a splash of paint, when you could bring out the jackhammers and do a proper reno??? A call was issued for 200,000 sets of goggles and earmuffs to be supplied and for the real work to be commenced.
Posted on 11 Apr
World Sailing Cup V3 - A Dead Rat in a Shoe or Spring Daffodils?
While a host of major sailing events go from strength to strength, the Sailing World Cup has very major issues. Last night my Irish better half was sitting beside me on the sofa watching an Australian version of the popular TV Cooking Program My Kitchen Rules on a tablet with her headphones while I was watching Diehard II for the seventeenth time (it’s a boy thing) on TV. She suddenly spluttered and laughed, took off her headphones and motioned for me to mute Diehard. (Seriously!!)
Posted on 9 Apr
Lancer 40 yearsInSunSport - NZNaiad