Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 11 - KIWI heads south, AUD surges

by Collinson FX on 11 Sep 2015 Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 11 - KIWI heads south, AUD Click here to find out how to get CollinsonFX's free iPhone app

Sep 11 - Equities remain confused during a month of static data and a rebuild of confidence. Commodities are attempting to consolidate on a rebound from a wounded China. Oil traded $45 while demand remains stagnant.

The Federal reserve now makes a huge and historic decision which has been flagged as return to normal monetary policy. An interest rate rise has been telegraphed and built in to markets. Any deviation from this path could cause major corrections from this path. Failure to act, which is more than possible, would cause a massive reaction in equity and currency markets.

Anticipated rises have not been interpreted in the currency markets, with the EUR rising to 1.1250, while the GBP hit 1.5450. The maligned Dollar was translating in to the commodity currencies, with the AUD surging to 0.7070, while the KIWI went south.

The RBNZ, true to form, went against the form of global Central Banks. The RBNZ recognised inflationary pressures, globally, cutting rates a further quarter?! The rocks in the Governors head are bouncing around like ping pong balls. This is what should have happened years ago and this retarded action is little more than an admission of failure. The NZD trades up towards 0.6300.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 10 - NZD rebounds
Sep 10 - Global equities surged, following the lead of US markets, in the previous session. The rally ran out of steam by the time US markets opened and they corrected lower. The GBP traded 1.5370, after contractions in both Industrial and Manufacturing production, although GDP growth remained positive.

The EURO attempted to breach 1.1200, but failed, consumed by the refugess crises enveloping the failed Union. Oil drifted back to $44 as commodities attempted to consolidate support at these low levels. Chinese demand remains key. The AUD broke back above 0.7000 and looks to consolidate, but remains victim to the Feds impending interest rate decision, vulnerable.

The NZD continued to rebound and attempted to break 0.6400 ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. The NZ Central Bank has been completely wrong throughout the economic cycle so nothing will surprise. They may cut rates as the Fed looks to raise (and RBNZ did by a further 25 basis points).

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 9 - Chinese lead Equities surge

Sep 9 - Equities surged overnight after a strong lead from China. Doubts were being quickly dispelled as liquidity flowed in virtual oceans. The money printing machines ran hot globally, as digital monetary transfers filled banks coffers, who in turn filled domestic treasuries debt.

The Fed has been alluding to an interest rate rise this month and expectations are high as domestic economic data improves. The EUR traded 1.1180, while the GBP surged to 1.5600, contradicting any rate rise in the US!? Commodity currencies surged back, with the AUD leaping to 0.7020, while the KIWI jumped to 0.6340.

Chinese trade data improved but analysis revealed a contraction in both exports and imports.EU GDP booked some gains, as the much ,maligned zone, comes under new refugee pressures. The EU barely survived the global economic crises and now should reveal the fallibilty of liberalism.

Collinson FX Market Commentary - Sep 8 - KIWI crash-tackled by reality
European and Asian markets rebounded,except for malignant China, from last weeks epic losses and turmoil but Wall Street was not going to be fooled.With little on the economic front, markets focused on the degenerative global economic conditions, US markets resumed the slide. Conditions in the US confirm a telegraphed interest rate rise, as indicated for most of the year, but lack of confidence would be translated in to a massive move in markets.

The EUR held 1.1170, while the GBP traded 1.5250, revealing little on Fed action. Commodities continued to tank and the associated currencies have been in free fall over the weekend.

The AUD crashed through technicals, to trade 0.6920, while reality smashed the NZD down to 0.6250. Politicians welcome the chance to commentate on the latest media darling, announcing heartfelt measures to support migrants, ignoring the devastation being wreaked upon local markets. Focus!


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