America's Cup - Predictwind pitches breeze to Emirates Team NZ's forte

by Richard Gladwell, Sail-World.com on 23 Jun 2017 The latest forecast from Predictwind.com for the Great Sound, Bermuda is for light winds just above the minimum allowed for racing on Saturday and slightly more on Sunday.

That is the same wind band as for the first two days of racing, when Emirates Team New Zealand showed Oracle Team USA their transoms, to lead around every mark of the course in the first four races.

If the wind drops below the minimum 6kts for racing and the 35th America's Cup is extended into next week, then Defender Oracle Team USA should get back into their comfort zone with the forecast predicted to be puffing to 15kt plus. Those are the conditions where Oracle Team USA beat the New Zealanders twice in the Qualifiers, and where the teams that have been resident in Bermuda have done a lot of sailing in the last two years.

Seamanship plays a very big part in racing the AC50's. It is not just a straight out speed race and when the wind strength hits the mid-teens and higher there is potential for errors to be made, or complex technology to fail, as we have seen many times in this regatta.

Those conditions prevailed for the Qualifiers and Playoffs of the Challenger Selection Series, dropping back to light winds on the last day of the Finals when Emirates Team New Zealand was able to seal up the Challenger spot with a 56-second win over the second placed Challenger Artemis Racing.

In fact, in terms of wins - given that Artemis Racing beat Oracle Team USA twice in the Qualifiers, it is arguable that the Defending Champion has only the third fastest boat in the regatta.

Both teams wrapped up their preparations today with Emirates Team New Zealand having a short session and Oracle Team USA having a longer one.

Afterwards, the teams seemed reasonably relaxed, with many of the Emirates Team New Zealand wider team helping out with the washing and drying of the AC50 before she was put away in the shed ahead of tomorrow's racing.

Oracle Team USA came in later in the day and were foiling down the Great Sound, rounding Alinghi principal Ernesto Bertarelli's superyacht Vava before heading for their base in the Royal Dockyard.

The only racing today on the Great Sound was the AC Endeavour Junior Hobie Wave Regatta, with two crash-helmeted young sailors crewing Hobie Wave catamarans in fleet racing. They will be featuring again in the half-time racing in the America's Cup tomorrow. Today the New Zealand crew was leading that event too.

Trevor Mallard, former Minister for the America's Cup and long-time Emirates Team New Zealand supporter - even when the political tide was running against the team - was spotted in the team base this afternoon, dressed in team kit.

On early Friday evening, the Bermudan sky has become overcast, and wind increased to 14-17kts - exactly what was forecast for this time by Predictwind.com. If the weather prediction application developed by former Alinghi meteorologist, Jon Bilger is correct at 2.00pm tomorrow afternoon, then Emirates Team New Zealand should be in their preferred wind band, and most here are expecting to see a repeat of the result of the first four races.

That being the case Oracle Team USA will have a very difficult task indeed. If Emirates Team New Zealand go on to win the 35th America's Cup, Peter Burling and Blair Tuke will create sailing history by being the first to win an Olympic Gold Medal and an America's Cup within a 12 month period. That simple statistic probably says more about the Emirates Team New Zealand program than any other indicator.

However, many New Zealand supporters still have vivid memories of San Francisco and know that the fortunes of an America's Cup team can literally turn with just a single split-second error. And counting America's Cup chickens before they have hatched is definitely frowned upon here in Bermuda.