Changing of the Guard in 49er – A tough bet to place

by Club 49er and Nacra 17 on 27 Aug 2017 For the first time since 2008, the 2017 49er Class World Champion will not be any of Iker Martinez/ Xabi Fernandez, Nathan Outteridge/ Iain Jensen, or Peter Burling/ Blair Tuke.

It is a testament to the strength of the 49er Class that each of these three champions are now leading top professional sailing programs in the Americas Cup and Volvo Ocean Race. No doubt the new 2017 49er Class World Champion will be looking to follow in their footsteps.

The truth right now in this post Burling and Outteridge era is that there is so much parity in the fleet making predictions right now is harder than it’s ever been. Up to 60 teams are competitive enough that they are looking to make it through the qualifying series to the top 20 Gold fleet. Of those teams, more than 15 believe that if things go their way they could be World Champions at the end of this week. This World Championship is set up to have 19 races over 6 days, but with many of the points being scored in the Gold fleet and Final day races, it is likely to go all the way to the wire and be a tight finish.

For the first time 49er and general sporting fans will be able to wager on the outcome so place your bets if you believe you can predict the results and our new World Champion.

As an initial form guide the favorites are Dylan Fletcher and Stuart Bithell (GBR) who narrowly won the 2017 European Championship just four weeks ago, in their first major championship win. They are a new team together, but both were near the top of the 49er Class through to the Rio Olympics with other team mates. They have combined well and have trained hard all winter long to move into the favorites slot. Dylan has been campaigning for many years, first with long time crew, Alain Sign.

Initially the duo sailed 29ers before a decade together in the 49er Class. Stu, a 470 Silver medalist from the London Olympics, made the transition to the 49er in 2013. He began crewing for Nic Asher, then with John Pink, and now with Dylan. He brings a fantastic sailing mind and balanced approach to racing, and so far this new partnership has been at the front of the fleet. While they are ready, this will be the toughest test they’ve faced together to date.

Returning to action, after a well deserved rest, are 2016 Olympic Bronze medalists, Erik Heil and Thomas Ploessel (GER). Erik has been doing some pro sailing this winter while Thomas finished his undergrad degree. They have done little in the 49er this year, they may not yet be at their best and they represent a bit of an unknown as they did not attend the Europeans. Nevertheless, this team represents a real challenge based on their years of prior experience.

Winning the ‘coaches’ regatta last week here in Porto in a very talented fleet were Lukasz Przbytek and Pawel Kolodzinski (POL). They have long been at the top but have yet to win a major championship. The coaches regatta result shows they are sailing well, but will they be able to repeat their performance when the pressure is on at the World Championship?

The forecast for the week is uncharacteristically light. In training there has been limited big breeze and waves unlike the action we saw when we last had an event here in 2015. So far there has been a thick layer of morning fog that first burns off before the sea breeze builds later in the day. These unusual weather characteristics mean that the results this week could be even more unpredictable than normal, and the odds of a long shot coming in to win are even higher!