Vendee Globe - Thomson chops French margin to 85nm

by Richard Gladwell on 16 Jan 2017 British solo racer, Alex Thomson continues to make gains on Vendee Globe Race leader, Armel Le Cleac'h as the two have around 1300nm of sailing to reach the finish at Les Sables.

Sailing Hugo Boss, powered by Doyle Sails, Thomson has chopped Banque Populaire's VII's lead to 85nm at 2100UTC on Sunday - a gain of about 15nm in 12 hours sailing. They are expected to finish on Thursday evening UTC. The two have around 1300nm of sailing to reach the finish at Les Sables.

The routing from Predictwind.com shows that Thomson should continue to enjoy his inherent speed advantage for another 36 hours before the winds ease to around 12 kts. The optimised course from the routing function takes the solo racers almost to the Scilly Isles before they tack onto port and head for the finish line some 26 hours distant.

Hugo Boss's speed differential may not be enough to extinguish Banque Populaire VIII's lead, and it will probably fall to Alex Thomson to make the first tactical move.

Currently, Thomson is reaching on starboard tack with his remaining DSS foil deployed. That situation will last for 36 hours when the winds are forecast to lighten and swing ahead, slowing the lead competitors as the come on the wind.

The routing is largely unchanged from the last report except that the high-pressure area with light winds at its centre remains in a blocking position, forcing the two solo sailors around its outside.

All four weather feeds produced by Predictwind are in close agreement as to the course options - even though they are rather radical - indicating that there is a highly likelihood of the prognosis being accurate.

The routing projection from Predictwind shows the high-pressure zone moving north before it becomes centred in the English channel and slows. At that point, the high begins to break up - offering new options for the two skippers. They can either chose to break early and have the gain of sailing a shorter distance more directly to the race finish or staying with the routing and stronger breezes/higher boat speeds, but at the trade-off of greater sailing distance.

If they stay with the routing, the two solo sailors are recommended to sail well to the NW of Brest on the NW corner of the French coast before tacking onto port and making their final approach to Les Sables halfway up the west coast of France and near La Rochelle.

The boats are projected to tack at 1530UTC on Wednesday afternoon and finish at 1800hrs on Thursday January 19, 2016 (7.00pm local time).

If they stay with the routing, the winds will be around 13kts average when they tack and will increase to 18kts average for the final 26hour sprint to the finish line. Le Cleac'h in Banque Populaire VIII will probably have the advantage in this phase as it will be in foiling conditions on port tack. Thomson's DSS foil is broken on the starboard side after a collision with an unidentified object in the Southern Ocean, and he will not have the same speed edge as Le Cleac'h, if they are in foiling conditions.

If Thomson is unable to sail down le Cleac'h, then the British sailor will most likely tack early and take his chances in as the high-pressure zone breaks up, forcing the Frenchman to cover and maybe be in a less favourable position for the final approach to the finish.