Rolex Sydney Hobart Race – Changing of the guard

by John Curnow on 26 Dec 2016 So as darkness descends on the 72nd Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race, watch systems and red lights take the place of sunglasses and hats. Yet another of the Hobart maxims is now coming into play. You go out early and come in late. It means you stay offshore early to pick up the East Australia Current running down South and then come in back to the Tasmanian coast and stay there.

It’s a plan that usually works out and this time is to be no different. Only thing is it is more about finding the pressure and when you see boats like Maserati, where the incredibly experienced Michael Coxon is Sailing Master, out there as the most easterly boat you know they are setting themselves up for something. No doubt having Volvo veterans like Noel Drennan and Tom Braidwood on board is also part of the reason they are where they are and doing what they are.

So with many thanks to PredictWind for providing us with intel, we see that they are all trying to be in a place to get the best of the squirt overnight, which is nowhere near land. Equally, come tomorrow, they want to be well into traversing the gap between the mainland and the Apple Isle (Tasmania). Depending on where they are there is a good 20 knots plus on offer to push them on, but it will be pretty square.

Then comes the next challenge. Do you come in as the maxim suggests, or stay off? Reason? Depending on the model of choice you’ll either be in 5 knots or 15, and for these apparent wind machines that is a huge difference. For those craft that are bound to enjoy more quality time out there, the good news is that the fresh Nor’nor’easters are hanging in, so more kite work for them.

The leaders will slow as they get into the regions of Storm Bay, so anything they can do now will allow them to have a chance at the record. Some routing has them well on record pace, but the amount of soft air in the Sou’east corner of Tasmania is more than a questionable element and could foil any plan. You’d also be thinking that it means the outright winner will be from further back, but then remember that other maxim, ‘I’ll tell you who has won when they are all tied up at Constitution Dock!’

In the meantime, the leaders are gunning in to Green Cape, from where they will have to make their declarations. Wild Oats XI is the big mover, with a 3nm lead from Perpetual Loyal, with Scallywag nearby. Black Jack continues to perform so well, with Maserati and Beau Geste in pursuit. Falling back some is Ichi Ban, who now has Balance beside her, and Hollywood Boulevard has made a move as well.

So there is a lot to unfold as the weather plays its hand in the great race. Presently it gets cloudy sooner rather than later in the piece and that means different wind under different systems, so the navigators will be watching the satellite imagery very closely. So the window got its frame, now has panes and we’ll get to work on the first coat of paint. Matt or gloss? We’ll see…

Also, the remnants of the Tropical Cyclone currently over the top of Western Australia will appear in the Great Australian Bight at some point, most likely Wednesday, but the blocking high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea will have influence over that. More than that is a little bit like Nostradamus for now.

Time will tell, so keep your head out the companionway hatch, for it has been many, many years since this set of conditions has been the overarching scenario for the race. Warm temperatures on the South-East corner landmass of Australia mean one thing at this time of year. Change! And hopefully not bushfires!!!

Ultimately then if you are looking for smiles yourself, then do keep a weather eye here on Sail-World.com for all the latest intel on the great, inspiring, captivating and very historic, blue water classic… The Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race.